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Real time detection of farm-level swine mycobacteriosis outbreak using time series modeling of the number of condemned intestines in abattoirs.

Adachi Y, Makita K - J. Vet. Med. Sci. (2015)

Bottom Line: The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012.The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value.During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Okhotsk Sub-Prefectural Bureau, Hokkaido Prefectural Government, 72-1 Chigusa, Higashi-Mokoto, Ozora Town, Abashiri-Gun, Hokkaido 099-3231, Japan.

ABSTRACT
Mycobacteriosis in swine is a common zoonosis found in abattoirs during meat inspections, and the veterinary authority is expected to inform the producer for corrective actions when an outbreak is detected. The expected value of the number of condemned carcasses due to mycobacteriosis therefore would be a useful threshold to detect an outbreak, and the present study aims to develop such an expected value through time series modeling. The model was developed using eight years of inspection data (2003 to 2010) obtained at 2 abattoirs of the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Japan. The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012. For the modeling, at first, periodicities were checked using Fast Fourier Transformation, and the ensemble average profiles for weekly periodicities were calculated. An Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the residual of the ensemble average on the basis of minimum Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value. During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times. All of these events were associated with the slaughtering of pigs from three producers with the highest rate of condemnation due to mycobacteriosis.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The observed condemned numbers of swine intestines due to mycobacteriosis and 95%confidence interval of values predicted by the ARIMA model. A detection of exceedednumber of condemnation was based on the expected value produced by the model, not onan optical judgment of the figure.
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fig_006: The observed condemned numbers of swine intestines due to mycobacteriosis and 95%confidence interval of values predicted by the ARIMA model. A detection of exceedednumber of condemnation was based on the expected value produced by the model, not onan optical judgment of the figure.

Mentions: Prediction of the expected condemned number of swine intestines: Thenumber of days when the actual number of condemned intestines exceeded the upper limit ofthe 95% confidence interval was three in fiscal year 2011 and 17 in fiscal year 2012 (Figs. 6Fig. 6.


Real time detection of farm-level swine mycobacteriosis outbreak using time series modeling of the number of condemned intestines in abattoirs.

Adachi Y, Makita K - J. Vet. Med. Sci. (2015)

The observed condemned numbers of swine intestines due to mycobacteriosis and 95%confidence interval of values predicted by the ARIMA model. A detection of exceedednumber of condemnation was based on the expected value produced by the model, not onan optical judgment of the figure.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4591155&req=5

fig_006: The observed condemned numbers of swine intestines due to mycobacteriosis and 95%confidence interval of values predicted by the ARIMA model. A detection of exceedednumber of condemnation was based on the expected value produced by the model, not onan optical judgment of the figure.
Mentions: Prediction of the expected condemned number of swine intestines: Thenumber of days when the actual number of condemned intestines exceeded the upper limit ofthe 95% confidence interval was three in fiscal year 2011 and 17 in fiscal year 2012 (Figs. 6Fig. 6.

Bottom Line: The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012.The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value.During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Okhotsk Sub-Prefectural Bureau, Hokkaido Prefectural Government, 72-1 Chigusa, Higashi-Mokoto, Ozora Town, Abashiri-Gun, Hokkaido 099-3231, Japan.

ABSTRACT
Mycobacteriosis in swine is a common zoonosis found in abattoirs during meat inspections, and the veterinary authority is expected to inform the producer for corrective actions when an outbreak is detected. The expected value of the number of condemned carcasses due to mycobacteriosis therefore would be a useful threshold to detect an outbreak, and the present study aims to develop such an expected value through time series modeling. The model was developed using eight years of inspection data (2003 to 2010) obtained at 2 abattoirs of the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Japan. The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012. For the modeling, at first, periodicities were checked using Fast Fourier Transformation, and the ensemble average profiles for weekly periodicities were calculated. An Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the residual of the ensemble average on the basis of minimum Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value. During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times. All of these events were associated with the slaughtering of pigs from three producers with the highest rate of condemnation due to mycobacteriosis.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus