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The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

duPont W, Noy I, Okuyama Y, Sawada Y - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake.Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter.Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe.

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Affiliation: Economics Department, College of St Benedict/St John's University, St. Joseph, MN, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Daytime population over 65 –Hyogo.
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pone.0138714.g009: Daytime population over 65 –Hyogo.

Mentions: Another intriguing trend, presented in (Fig 9), is the increase in the number of people over the age of 65. When compared with other geographical units in Japan (the synthetic control), Kobe City seemed to have gained more. While we do not know the exact reasons for this shift, we can speculate that it may be associated with either people returning to their cultural roots (as the impact of the earthquake leads to shifts in preferences), or that over-65, living mostly on fixed incomes, are moving to a place where living costs are more manageable (both because of the relative economic decline of the region and the generous government support).


The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

duPont W, Noy I, Okuyama Y, Sawada Y - PLoS ONE (2015)

Daytime population over 65 –Hyogo.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4591010&req=5

pone.0138714.g009: Daytime population over 65 –Hyogo.
Mentions: Another intriguing trend, presented in (Fig 9), is the increase in the number of people over the age of 65. When compared with other geographical units in Japan (the synthetic control), Kobe City seemed to have gained more. While we do not know the exact reasons for this shift, we can speculate that it may be associated with either people returning to their cultural roots (as the impact of the earthquake leads to shifts in preferences), or that over-65, living mostly on fixed incomes, are moving to a place where living costs are more manageable (both because of the relative economic decline of the region and the generous government support).

Bottom Line: Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake.Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter.Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Economics Department, College of St Benedict/St John's University, St. Joseph, MN, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus