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The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

duPont W, Noy I, Okuyama Y, Sawada Y - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter.Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake.Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Economics Department, College of St Benedict/St John's University, St. Joseph, MN, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

No MeSH data available.


Total population—Kobe.
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pone.0138714.g006: Total population—Kobe.

Mentions: During the first year after the earthquake, there was a short-term dip in population across the whole area nearest to the epicenter, and including the urban Eastern corridor toward Osaka. In the longer-run, however, we observe heterogeneities in permanent population trends. Figures available in (S1 Fig) present the population impact maps for the aggregate figures, and disaggregated by gender and age and using several population measures from different sources. In (Figs 5 and 6), we observe a pattern of movement away from the most severely affected areas. However, regions to the east, that were also seriously impacted initially, seem to gain in long run, suggesting that proximity to Osaka may be a driver of population recovery. These patterns are not uniform; Sumoto city, for example, which is located near the epicenter, has been largely unaffected in the long-run, implying that the community and industry employment characteristics matter as well. One possibility, elaborated on by [14], is that the community is a major determinant of these differing recovery trajectories, and that cohesive communities recover faster and more completely. [29] on the other hand, emphasize industry/sector characteristics as determinants of recovery trajectories. Our data does not allow us to distinguish between these differing explanations, and it is likely that they all interact in complex ways to determine outcomes.


The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

duPont W, Noy I, Okuyama Y, Sawada Y - PLoS ONE (2015)

Total population—Kobe.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4591010&req=5

pone.0138714.g006: Total population—Kobe.
Mentions: During the first year after the earthquake, there was a short-term dip in population across the whole area nearest to the epicenter, and including the urban Eastern corridor toward Osaka. In the longer-run, however, we observe heterogeneities in permanent population trends. Figures available in (S1 Fig) present the population impact maps for the aggregate figures, and disaggregated by gender and age and using several population measures from different sources. In (Figs 5 and 6), we observe a pattern of movement away from the most severely affected areas. However, regions to the east, that were also seriously impacted initially, seem to gain in long run, suggesting that proximity to Osaka may be a driver of population recovery. These patterns are not uniform; Sumoto city, for example, which is located near the epicenter, has been largely unaffected in the long-run, implying that the community and industry employment characteristics matter as well. One possibility, elaborated on by [14], is that the community is a major determinant of these differing recovery trajectories, and that cohesive communities recover faster and more completely. [29] on the other hand, emphasize industry/sector characteristics as determinants of recovery trajectories. Our data does not allow us to distinguish between these differing explanations, and it is likely that they all interact in complex ways to determine outcomes.

Bottom Line: Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter.Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake.Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Economics Department, College of St Benedict/St John's University, St. Joseph, MN, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

No MeSH data available.