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Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran.

Akbari M, Tabrizi R, Heydari ST, Sekhavati E, Moosazadeh M, Lankarani KB - Electron Physician (2015)

Bottom Line: Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013).Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year).Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: M.Sc. in Epidemiology, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period.

Methods: We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013).

Results: During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%.

Conclusion: Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Trends of death rates among pedestrians based on gender: A) trend of death rate of males separately based on age group per 100,000 population; B) trend of death rate of females per 100,000 population
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f2-epj-07-1247: Trends of death rates among pedestrians based on gender: A) trend of death rate of males separately based on age group per 100,000 population; B) trend of death rate of females per 100,000 population

Mentions: The results indicated that the maximum fatality rates due to traffic accidents were among pedestrians of both genders in the age groups of > 70, 50–69, and < 5. It is expected that, with the existing trend during recent years, the death rate will decrease or remain uniform for all age groups of males and females (Figure 2).


Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran.

Akbari M, Tabrizi R, Heydari ST, Sekhavati E, Moosazadeh M, Lankarani KB - Electron Physician (2015)

Trends of death rates among pedestrians based on gender: A) trend of death rate of males separately based on age group per 100,000 population; B) trend of death rate of females per 100,000 population
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4590560&req=5

f2-epj-07-1247: Trends of death rates among pedestrians based on gender: A) trend of death rate of males separately based on age group per 100,000 population; B) trend of death rate of females per 100,000 population
Mentions: The results indicated that the maximum fatality rates due to traffic accidents were among pedestrians of both genders in the age groups of > 70, 50–69, and < 5. It is expected that, with the existing trend during recent years, the death rate will decrease or remain uniform for all age groups of males and females (Figure 2).

Bottom Line: Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013).Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year).Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: M.Sc. in Epidemiology, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period.

Methods: We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013).

Results: During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%.

Conclusion: Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus