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Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

Hughes J, Kabir Z, Bennett K, Hotchkiss JW, Kee F, Leyland AH, Davies C, Bandosz P, Guzman-Castillo M, O'Flaherty M, Capewell S, Critchley J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030.In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%.Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT

Objective: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

Methods: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

Results: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Predicted Decreases in Deaths in 2030 based on ‘Lower CHD mortality in 2030’–IDEAL Scenarios (the error bars show the extreme minimum and maximum values in the sensitivity analysis.
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pone.0138044.g002: Predicted Decreases in Deaths in 2030 based on ‘Lower CHD mortality in 2030’–IDEAL Scenarios (the error bars show the extreme minimum and maximum values in the sensitivity analysis.

Mentions: Table 1 details baseline (2010) and future (2030) risk factor weighted average values (25–84 years) used in the models for each country. Table 2 reports modelled estimates of potentially preventable CHD deaths (expressed as a percentage of total expected deaths in 2030) pertaining to each future risk factor scenario. For a ‘lower CHD mortality in 2030’ assumption, estimates of the number of CHD deaths that could potentially result from achievable ‘modest’ (scenario 1) and more optimistic ‘ideal’ (scenario 2) future risk factor scenarios are shown in Fig 2. Separate modelling estimates based on assuming a no CHD mortality change to 2030 were also quantified “in Table J and Figure B in S1 Appendix”.


Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

Hughes J, Kabir Z, Bennett K, Hotchkiss JW, Kee F, Leyland AH, Davies C, Bandosz P, Guzman-Castillo M, O'Flaherty M, Capewell S, Critchley J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Predicted Decreases in Deaths in 2030 based on ‘Lower CHD mortality in 2030’–IDEAL Scenarios (the error bars show the extreme minimum and maximum values in the sensitivity analysis.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4589484&req=5

pone.0138044.g002: Predicted Decreases in Deaths in 2030 based on ‘Lower CHD mortality in 2030’–IDEAL Scenarios (the error bars show the extreme minimum and maximum values in the sensitivity analysis.
Mentions: Table 1 details baseline (2010) and future (2030) risk factor weighted average values (25–84 years) used in the models for each country. Table 2 reports modelled estimates of potentially preventable CHD deaths (expressed as a percentage of total expected deaths in 2030) pertaining to each future risk factor scenario. For a ‘lower CHD mortality in 2030’ assumption, estimates of the number of CHD deaths that could potentially result from achievable ‘modest’ (scenario 1) and more optimistic ‘ideal’ (scenario 2) future risk factor scenarios are shown in Fig 2. Separate modelling estimates based on assuming a no CHD mortality change to 2030 were also quantified “in Table J and Figure B in S1 Appendix”.

Bottom Line: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030.In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%.Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT

Objective: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

Methods: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

Results: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus