Limits...
Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The influence of the parameter ω on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier (). in terms of different values of ω.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4589324&req=5

pone.0138765.g007: The influence of the parameter ω on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier (). in terms of different values of ω.

Mentions: In the following, we focus on parameters ω and β2. The influence of the parameters ω and β2 on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier is shown in Figs 7 and 8. We can see from Fig 7 that when ω = 0.08, that is, proportion of newborns that is successfully immunized reaches 92%, the ratio of hepatitis B carrier will drop to 9% in 2065. When transmission coefficient β2 is reduced to 0.01, which is about 1/8 of current level, the ratio of hepatitis B carrier will drop to 8% in 2065(see Fig 8). This shows that the decline for the ratio of hepatitis B carrier will be a slow process. The most important factors lead to this phenomenon are the difficulty for curing the disease and long-term survival for carriers. Therefore, control and elimination of hepatitis is a long-term and arduous campaign.


Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

The influence of the parameter ω on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier (). in terms of different values of ω.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4589324&req=5

pone.0138765.g007: The influence of the parameter ω on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier (). in terms of different values of ω.
Mentions: In the following, we focus on parameters ω and β2. The influence of the parameters ω and β2 on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier is shown in Figs 7 and 8. We can see from Fig 7 that when ω = 0.08, that is, proportion of newborns that is successfully immunized reaches 92%, the ratio of hepatitis B carrier will drop to 9% in 2065. When transmission coefficient β2 is reduced to 0.01, which is about 1/8 of current level, the ratio of hepatitis B carrier will drop to 8% in 2065(see Fig 8). This shows that the decline for the ratio of hepatitis B carrier will be a slow process. The most important factors lead to this phenomenon are the difficulty for curing the disease and long-term survival for carriers. Therefore, control and elimination of hepatitis is a long-term and arduous campaign.

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus