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Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Partial rank correlation coefficients(PRCC) results for the dependence of σ on each parameter.* denotes the value of PRCC is not zero significantly, where the significance level is 0.05.
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pone.0138765.g006: Partial rank correlation coefficients(PRCC) results for the dependence of σ on each parameter.* denotes the value of PRCC is not zero significantly, where the significance level is 0.05.

Mentions: We choose the sample size n = 2000, parameters interested as the input variables, and the value of σ as the output variable. The PRCC values of six parameters are listed in Table 5 and shown on Fig 6. The ordering of these PRCCs corresponds to the level of statistical influence the parameter has on the variability for the modified reproductive number σ. The larger PRCCs in absolute value, the more important the parameter in responding to the change in σ. Plus sign or minus sign means the influence is positive or negative respectively. Fig 6 shows that ω, β2 and η have positive impact upon σ, whilst q and α have negative impact. We also know that σ is not sensitive to parameter γ. Further, Table 5 shows that unsuccessfully immunized proportion of newborns ω(∣PRCC∣ = 0.9418) has the greatest impact on σ followed by the transmission coefficient from carriers to susceptible individuals β2(∣PRCC∣ = 0.9143), then the proportion of leaving acute infection and progressing to carrier η. Hence, from sensitivity and mathematical analysis we conclude that the most effective approach to reduce the HBV infection is to decrease the parameters ω and β2.


Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

Partial rank correlation coefficients(PRCC) results for the dependence of σ on each parameter.* denotes the value of PRCC is not zero significantly, where the significance level is 0.05.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4589324&req=5

pone.0138765.g006: Partial rank correlation coefficients(PRCC) results for the dependence of σ on each parameter.* denotes the value of PRCC is not zero significantly, where the significance level is 0.05.
Mentions: We choose the sample size n = 2000, parameters interested as the input variables, and the value of σ as the output variable. The PRCC values of six parameters are listed in Table 5 and shown on Fig 6. The ordering of these PRCCs corresponds to the level of statistical influence the parameter has on the variability for the modified reproductive number σ. The larger PRCCs in absolute value, the more important the parameter in responding to the change in σ. Plus sign or minus sign means the influence is positive or negative respectively. Fig 6 shows that ω, β2 and η have positive impact upon σ, whilst q and α have negative impact. We also know that σ is not sensitive to parameter γ. Further, Table 5 shows that unsuccessfully immunized proportion of newborns ω(∣PRCC∣ = 0.9418) has the greatest impact on σ followed by the transmission coefficient from carriers to susceptible individuals β2(∣PRCC∣ = 0.9143), then the proportion of leaving acute infection and progressing to carrier η. Hence, from sensitivity and mathematical analysis we conclude that the most effective approach to reduce the HBV infection is to decrease the parameters ω and β2.

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus