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Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The tendency of the cumulative number of acute HBV cases from 2004 to 2017.Shaded areas represent 95% confidence interval around model predictions.
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pone.0138765.g005: The tendency of the cumulative number of acute HBV cases from 2004 to 2017.Shaded areas represent 95% confidence interval around model predictions.

Mentions: Based on the model and the parameter values in Table 2, we estimate the modified reproductive number to be σ = 1.1336(95% CI: 1.0144–1.2665). This indicates that the disease is uniform persistence. Therefore, if no further effective prevention and control measures are taken, the disease will not vanish. We can predict the general tendency of the epidemic according to the current situation(see Fig 4), which is presented in Fig 5, where MAPE = 7.70% and RMSPE = 15.26%.


Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

The tendency of the cumulative number of acute HBV cases from 2004 to 2017.Shaded areas represent 95% confidence interval around model predictions.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4589324&req=5

pone.0138765.g005: The tendency of the cumulative number of acute HBV cases from 2004 to 2017.Shaded areas represent 95% confidence interval around model predictions.
Mentions: Based on the model and the parameter values in Table 2, we estimate the modified reproductive number to be σ = 1.1336(95% CI: 1.0144–1.2665). This indicates that the disease is uniform persistence. Therefore, if no further effective prevention and control measures are taken, the disease will not vanish. We can predict the general tendency of the epidemic according to the current situation(see Fig 4), which is presented in Fig 5, where MAPE = 7.70% and RMSPE = 15.26%.

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus