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Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The number of population in Xinjiang from 2003 to 2012.The solid line is the fitted curve of total population number in Xinjiang.
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pone.0138765.g003: The number of population in Xinjiang from 2003 to 2012.The solid line is the fitted curve of total population number in Xinjiang.

Mentions: The average life expectancy of people in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China was 71.12 years in 2005 [26]. We take it as the current average life expectancy. Thus, d = 1/71.12 = 0.0141. The demographic data from 2004 to 2012 for Xinjiang is listed in Table 3. We can obtain the annual birth rates is b = 0.0313 by least-square estimation(see Fig 3).


Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

The number of population in Xinjiang from 2003 to 2012.The solid line is the fitted curve of total population number in Xinjiang.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4589324&req=5

pone.0138765.g003: The number of population in Xinjiang from 2003 to 2012.The solid line is the fitted curve of total population number in Xinjiang.
Mentions: The average life expectancy of people in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China was 71.12 years in 2005 [26]. We take it as the current average life expectancy. Thus, d = 1/71.12 = 0.0141. The demographic data from 2004 to 2012 for Xinjiang is listed in Table 3. We can obtain the annual birth rates is b = 0.0313 by least-square estimation(see Fig 3).

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus