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Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Schematic diagram of HBV transmission, structured.S(t), A(t), C(t) and R(t) represent susceptible, acute infection, chronic HBV carrier and recovered individuals, respectively.
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pone.0138765.g001: Schematic diagram of HBV transmission, structured.S(t), A(t), C(t) and R(t) represent susceptible, acute infection, chronic HBV carrier and recovered individuals, respectively.

Mentions: We use a mathematical model to study the transmission of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The total population is divided into four classes: the susceptible individuals S, acute infection individuals A, chronic HBV carriers C, and recovered individuals R. The total population is N = S+A+C+R. According to the natural history of HBV, we construct our model which is different from the previous HBV models which are mentioned in Introduction. Firstly, the birth rate function of the total population is not a constant. Secondly, we omit the rate of waning vaccine-induced immunity of vaccinated individuals, because there is no evidence to support the need for a booster dose of hepatitis B vaccine. Protection lasts at least 20 years, and is possibly life-long [19]. A flow diagram is depicted in Fig 1. The model is a system of four ordinary differential equations:{dSdt=ω[b(N−C)+bqC]−β1SAN−β2SCN−θpS−dS,dAdt=β1SAN+β2SCN−(d+γ)A,dCdt=b(1−q)C+ηγA−(d+α)C,dRdt=(1−ω)[b(N−C)+bqC]+θpS+(1−η)γA−dR.(1)The underlying assumptions of are listed as follows.


Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Zhang T, Wang K, Zhang X - PLoS ONE (2015)

Schematic diagram of HBV transmission, structured.S(t), A(t), C(t) and R(t) represent susceptible, acute infection, chronic HBV carrier and recovered individuals, respectively.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4589324&req=5

pone.0138765.g001: Schematic diagram of HBV transmission, structured.S(t), A(t), C(t) and R(t) represent susceptible, acute infection, chronic HBV carrier and recovered individuals, respectively.
Mentions: We use a mathematical model to study the transmission of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The total population is divided into four classes: the susceptible individuals S, acute infection individuals A, chronic HBV carriers C, and recovered individuals R. The total population is N = S+A+C+R. According to the natural history of HBV, we construct our model which is different from the previous HBV models which are mentioned in Introduction. Firstly, the birth rate function of the total population is not a constant. Secondly, we omit the rate of waning vaccine-induced immunity of vaccinated individuals, because there is no evidence to support the need for a booster dose of hepatitis B vaccine. Protection lasts at least 20 years, and is possibly life-long [19]. A flow diagram is depicted in Fig 1. The model is a system of four ordinary differential equations:{dSdt=ω[b(N−C)+bqC]−β1SAN−β2SCN−θpS−dS,dAdt=β1SAN+β2SCN−(d+γ)A,dCdt=b(1−q)C+ηγA−(d+α)C,dRdt=(1−ω)[b(N−C)+bqC]+θpS+(1−η)γA−dR.(1)The underlying assumptions of are listed as follows.

Bottom Line: The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017.Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV.Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Science/Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.

ABSTRACT
Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus