Limits...
Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Partial dependence plots, each showing probability of suitability for Columbia spotted frogs (y‐axes) as a function of a single‐variable MaxEnt model, for eight important predictor variables.
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ece31634-fig-0010: Partial dependence plots, each showing probability of suitability for Columbia spotted frogs (y‐axes) as a function of a single‐variable MaxEnt model, for eight important predictor variables.

Mentions: We used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) data (Gao et al. 2010) to quantify surface water runoff in 6‐km pixels across the entire Great Basin for similar time periods as described above. VIC is a spatially explicit, coarse‐scale, surface water hydrologic model that combines gridded land surface modeling approaches with meteorological data. While we recognize the importance of ground water for the hydrology of streams and wetlands, VIC runoff data allowed us to assess at least the relative changes in surface water contributions to streams and wetlands under different scenarios. As VIC data were not available for the exact time periods used for climate modeling, we selected the closest available corresponding year ranges: 1915–1930, 1981–2006, and 2080. Data provided for 2080 were derived from a 10‐year model simulation approach, accounting for annual variability. Consequently, values from the 2080 dataset reflect projected climate conditions on a 10‐year scale, centered around 2080. We calculated monthly average surface runoff values (depth per day, where 1 mm depth = 1 million L/km2) for each time period for all 6‐km pixels in the Great Basin study area. We generated kernel‐smoothed probability density curves for the months of May and September in each time period to quantify changes in the distribution of runoff values throughout the Great Basin. These 2 months were identified by our climate suitability model as the most important hydrologic (i.e., precipitation likely to fall as rain) predictors of spotted frog climate suitability (Fig. A3). To evaluate changes in monthly runoff at currently occupied locations only (i.e., not Great Basin‐wide), we calculated the mean monthly runoff values for each time period at pixels underlying current breeding locations (n = 142 pixels for each of the three time periods).


Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Partial dependence plots, each showing probability of suitability for Columbia spotted frogs (y‐axes) as a function of a single‐variable MaxEnt model, for eight important predictor variables.
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4588645&req=5

ece31634-fig-0010: Partial dependence plots, each showing probability of suitability for Columbia spotted frogs (y‐axes) as a function of a single‐variable MaxEnt model, for eight important predictor variables.
Mentions: We used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) data (Gao et al. 2010) to quantify surface water runoff in 6‐km pixels across the entire Great Basin for similar time periods as described above. VIC is a spatially explicit, coarse‐scale, surface water hydrologic model that combines gridded land surface modeling approaches with meteorological data. While we recognize the importance of ground water for the hydrology of streams and wetlands, VIC runoff data allowed us to assess at least the relative changes in surface water contributions to streams and wetlands under different scenarios. As VIC data were not available for the exact time periods used for climate modeling, we selected the closest available corresponding year ranges: 1915–1930, 1981–2006, and 2080. Data provided for 2080 were derived from a 10‐year model simulation approach, accounting for annual variability. Consequently, values from the 2080 dataset reflect projected climate conditions on a 10‐year scale, centered around 2080. We calculated monthly average surface runoff values (depth per day, where 1 mm depth = 1 million L/km2) for each time period for all 6‐km pixels in the Great Basin study area. We generated kernel‐smoothed probability density curves for the months of May and September in each time period to quantify changes in the distribution of runoff values throughout the Great Basin. These 2 months were identified by our climate suitability model as the most important hydrologic (i.e., precipitation likely to fall as rain) predictors of spotted frog climate suitability (Fig. A3). To evaluate changes in monthly runoff at currently occupied locations only (i.e., not Great Basin‐wide), we calculated the mean monthly runoff values for each time period at pixels underlying current breeding locations (n = 142 pixels for each of the three time periods).

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus