Limits...
Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


NMS ordination biplot of recent (1981–2010) PRISM climate data at 151 Columbia spotted frog breeding locations (complexes of sites, see methods) in the Great Basin study area.
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection


getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4588645&req=5

ece31634-fig-0008: NMS ordination biplot of recent (1981–2010) PRISM climate data at 151 Columbia spotted frog breeding locations (complexes of sites, see methods) in the Great Basin study area.

Mentions: We used 30‐year (1981–2010) average monthly temperature and precipitation data to derive recent climate variables (i.e., 30‐year average temperature and precipitation values for each month of the year resulting in 24 climate parameters) for each breeding location. We rescaled climate data from 800‐m gridded PRISM data (Daly et al. 2002) to 270 m to match the spatial resolution of our other data, resulting in about 6.8 million 270‐m pixels across the Great Basin study area (see Franklin et al. 2013 for discussion of the influence of spatial grain for climate analyses). Multivariate outlier analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordination of recent climate data were conducted (as in Arkle et al. 2014) using PC‐ORD 6.09 software (McCune and Mefford 2011) to identify breeding locations with average Sorenson distances greater than two standard deviations from the overall mean Sorenson distance between locations. Three breeding locations were identified as climatic outliers and were excluded from the input dataset because of potentially disproportionate influence on model outputs (Fig. A1), resulting in 142 breeding locations used in analyses.


Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

NMS ordination biplot of recent (1981–2010) PRISM climate data at 151 Columbia spotted frog breeding locations (complexes of sites, see methods) in the Great Basin study area.
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4588645&req=5

ece31634-fig-0008: NMS ordination biplot of recent (1981–2010) PRISM climate data at 151 Columbia spotted frog breeding locations (complexes of sites, see methods) in the Great Basin study area.
Mentions: We used 30‐year (1981–2010) average monthly temperature and precipitation data to derive recent climate variables (i.e., 30‐year average temperature and precipitation values for each month of the year resulting in 24 climate parameters) for each breeding location. We rescaled climate data from 800‐m gridded PRISM data (Daly et al. 2002) to 270 m to match the spatial resolution of our other data, resulting in about 6.8 million 270‐m pixels across the Great Basin study area (see Franklin et al. 2013 for discussion of the influence of spatial grain for climate analyses). Multivariate outlier analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordination of recent climate data were conducted (as in Arkle et al. 2014) using PC‐ORD 6.09 software (McCune and Mefford 2011) to identify breeding locations with average Sorenson distances greater than two standard deviations from the overall mean Sorenson distance between locations. Three breeding locations were identified as climatic outliers and were excluded from the input dataset because of potentially disproportionate influence on model outputs (Fig. A1), resulting in 142 breeding locations used in analyses.

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.