Limits...
Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Connectivity analysis output for the entire Great Basin (lower left; also see Fig. A5), with 151 spotted frog breeding locations (green points; see Table 1) used for the full connectivity model, 25 breeding locations with genetic data (white points; see Table 2) used for validation connectivity model, and white letters corresponding to enlarged panels for each region. Individual regions are labeled in white text as Panels A ‐ E, with stream and river names labeled in black. Panel F of the West Desert, Utah is not shown. Warmer colors indicate pixels (270 m) of higher electrical current flow and connectivity between breeding sites.
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ece31634-fig-0006: Connectivity analysis output for the entire Great Basin (lower left; also see Fig. A5), with 151 spotted frog breeding locations (green points; see Table 1) used for the full connectivity model, 25 breeding locations with genetic data (white points; see Table 2) used for validation connectivity model, and white letters corresponding to enlarged panels for each region. Individual regions are labeled in white text as Panels A ‐ E, with stream and river names labeled in black. Panel F of the West Desert, Utah is not shown. Warmer colors indicate pixels (270 m) of higher electrical current flow and connectivity between breeding sites.

Mentions: Landscape connectivity as measured by resistance distance (Ȓ) among the 151 Columbia spotted frog breeding locations varied by geographical location (Table 1, Fig. 6, Fig. A5). Groups (and thus breeding locations) in the northern part of the study area tended to have higher connectivity to other breeding locations than groups in the southern part of the Great Basin, with a few exceptions (Table 1, Fig. A5). Some populations in southeastern Oregon (Other Oregon) were especially isolated, but still less isolated than the West Desert, Utah populations, which were included for comparison.


Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Connectivity analysis output for the entire Great Basin (lower left; also see Fig. A5), with 151 spotted frog breeding locations (green points; see Table 1) used for the full connectivity model, 25 breeding locations with genetic data (white points; see Table 2) used for validation connectivity model, and white letters corresponding to enlarged panels for each region. Individual regions are labeled in white text as Panels A ‐ E, with stream and river names labeled in black. Panel F of the West Desert, Utah is not shown. Warmer colors indicate pixels (270 m) of higher electrical current flow and connectivity between breeding sites.
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4588645&req=5

ece31634-fig-0006: Connectivity analysis output for the entire Great Basin (lower left; also see Fig. A5), with 151 spotted frog breeding locations (green points; see Table 1) used for the full connectivity model, 25 breeding locations with genetic data (white points; see Table 2) used for validation connectivity model, and white letters corresponding to enlarged panels for each region. Individual regions are labeled in white text as Panels A ‐ E, with stream and river names labeled in black. Panel F of the West Desert, Utah is not shown. Warmer colors indicate pixels (270 m) of higher electrical current flow and connectivity between breeding sites.
Mentions: Landscape connectivity as measured by resistance distance (Ȓ) among the 151 Columbia spotted frog breeding locations varied by geographical location (Table 1, Fig. 6, Fig. A5). Groups (and thus breeding locations) in the northern part of the study area tended to have higher connectivity to other breeding locations than groups in the southern part of the Great Basin, with a few exceptions (Table 1, Fig. A5). Some populations in southeastern Oregon (Other Oregon) were especially isolated, but still less isolated than the West Desert, Utah populations, which were included for comparison.

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus