Limits...
Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Kernel‐smoothed probability density of surface water runoff values for all 6‐km pixels in the Great Basin by time period. Runoff values were derived from variable infiltration capacity (VIC) data averaged within each time period for the months of May (A) and September (B). Gray shading represents average ± 1 SE runoff at known breeding locations.
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ece31634-fig-0004: Kernel‐smoothed probability density of surface water runoff values for all 6‐km pixels in the Great Basin by time period. Runoff values were derived from variable infiltration capacity (VIC) data averaged within each time period for the months of May (A) and September (B). Gray shading represents average ± 1 SE runoff at known breeding locations.

Mentions: Surface runoff was higher, in general, during 1981–2006 period compared to the 1915–1930 and 2080 time periods. According to the VIC model, the area of the Great Basin with May surface runoff values of 4–8 mm (relatively high values that correspond to values at currently occupied breeding locations) increased between the 1915–1930 and 1981–2006 time periods (Fig. 4A). However, May surface runoff is expected to be substantially lower throughout the Great Basin during the 2080 time period than was observed for 1915–1930 or 1981–2006 time periods (Fig. 4A). The area of the Great Basin with relatively high (i.e., >0.70 mm) September surface runoff also increased between 1915–1930 and 1981–2006 (Fig. 4B). However, in contrast to May, September runoff is expected to increase in much of the Great Basin between the 1981–2006 and 2080 time periods.


Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Kernel‐smoothed probability density of surface water runoff values for all 6‐km pixels in the Great Basin by time period. Runoff values were derived from variable infiltration capacity (VIC) data averaged within each time period for the months of May (A) and September (B). Gray shading represents average ± 1 SE runoff at known breeding locations.
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

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getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4588645&req=5

ece31634-fig-0004: Kernel‐smoothed probability density of surface water runoff values for all 6‐km pixels in the Great Basin by time period. Runoff values were derived from variable infiltration capacity (VIC) data averaged within each time period for the months of May (A) and September (B). Gray shading represents average ± 1 SE runoff at known breeding locations.
Mentions: Surface runoff was higher, in general, during 1981–2006 period compared to the 1915–1930 and 2080 time periods. According to the VIC model, the area of the Great Basin with May surface runoff values of 4–8 mm (relatively high values that correspond to values at currently occupied breeding locations) increased between the 1915–1930 and 1981–2006 time periods (Fig. 4A). However, May surface runoff is expected to be substantially lower throughout the Great Basin during the 2080 time period than was observed for 1915–1930 or 1981–2006 time periods (Fig. 4A). The area of the Great Basin with relatively high (i.e., >0.70 mm) September surface runoff also increased between 1915–1930 and 1981–2006 (Fig. 4B). However, in contrast to May, September runoff is expected to increase in much of the Great Basin between the 1981–2006 and 2080 time periods.

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus