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Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Kernel‐smoothed probability density of climate suitability values for all 270‐m pixels in the Great Basin by time or carbon emission scenario. Values were derived by modeling recent (1981–2010) breeding location climate conditions and projecting to climate data for all pixels, under each scenario. Underlying future climate data derived from 16‐model ensemble averages under B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high) carbon emission scenarios. Inset shows the full range of the x‐axis, whereas the main figure shows the density of observations only in x‐axis values ≥0.20 to better illustrate differences in the area of suitable climate among the time periods and carbon emission scenarios.
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ece31634-fig-0002: Kernel‐smoothed probability density of climate suitability values for all 270‐m pixels in the Great Basin by time or carbon emission scenario. Values were derived by modeling recent (1981–2010) breeding location climate conditions and projecting to climate data for all pixels, under each scenario. Underlying future climate data derived from 16‐model ensemble averages under B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high) carbon emission scenarios. Inset shows the full range of the x‐axis, whereas the main figure shows the density of observations only in x‐axis values ≥0.20 to better illustrate differences in the area of suitable climate among the time periods and carbon emission scenarios.

Mentions: Only 5.4% of the Great Basin had suitable climate conditions for Columbia spotted frog breeding during the 1981–2010 time period (Figs 1 and 2 inset). The area of suitable climate (i.e., ≥0.20) has declined by 49% since the period 1901–1930 on the basis of relationships derived from the current climate model projected into the past (Fig. 2). The model also predicts a further decline of 77–97% (depending on carbon emission scenario) of the area with suitable climate in the period 2071–2100 relative to the 1981–2010 time period (Figs 1 and 2). A greater proportion of the Great Basin is expected to have moderately suitable (i.e., 0.20–0.30) climate conditions under the high (A2) emission scenario than under the medium (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios (Fig. 2). Figure A4 provides values expressed as percent of the study area rather than density of observations.


Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Kernel‐smoothed probability density of climate suitability values for all 270‐m pixels in the Great Basin by time or carbon emission scenario. Values were derived by modeling recent (1981–2010) breeding location climate conditions and projecting to climate data for all pixels, under each scenario. Underlying future climate data derived from 16‐model ensemble averages under B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high) carbon emission scenarios. Inset shows the full range of the x‐axis, whereas the main figure shows the density of observations only in x‐axis values ≥0.20 to better illustrate differences in the area of suitable climate among the time periods and carbon emission scenarios.
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

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getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4588645&req=5

ece31634-fig-0002: Kernel‐smoothed probability density of climate suitability values for all 270‐m pixels in the Great Basin by time or carbon emission scenario. Values were derived by modeling recent (1981–2010) breeding location climate conditions and projecting to climate data for all pixels, under each scenario. Underlying future climate data derived from 16‐model ensemble averages under B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high) carbon emission scenarios. Inset shows the full range of the x‐axis, whereas the main figure shows the density of observations only in x‐axis values ≥0.20 to better illustrate differences in the area of suitable climate among the time periods and carbon emission scenarios.
Mentions: Only 5.4% of the Great Basin had suitable climate conditions for Columbia spotted frog breeding during the 1981–2010 time period (Figs 1 and 2 inset). The area of suitable climate (i.e., ≥0.20) has declined by 49% since the period 1901–1930 on the basis of relationships derived from the current climate model projected into the past (Fig. 2). The model also predicts a further decline of 77–97% (depending on carbon emission scenario) of the area with suitable climate in the period 2071–2100 relative to the 1981–2010 time period (Figs 1 and 2). A greater proportion of the Great Basin is expected to have moderately suitable (i.e., 0.20–0.30) climate conditions under the high (A2) emission scenario than under the medium (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios (Fig. 2). Figure A4 provides values expressed as percent of the study area rather than density of observations.

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.