Limits...
Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.


Geographic projections of past (1901–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability for Columbia spotted frogs in the Great Basin (black line). Projections were based on applying a model of breeding location climate to similar data from each time or carbon emission scenario (B1, A1B, and A2; ordered low to high carbon emissions). Each panel uses an equivalent color ramp, with cooler colors indicating lower probability of suitability and warmer colors indicating greater suitability (range = 0–0.97). Points shown in green are current breeding locations (points in Utah were not used in model development).
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ece31634-fig-0001: Geographic projections of past (1901–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability for Columbia spotted frogs in the Great Basin (black line). Projections were based on applying a model of breeding location climate to similar data from each time or carbon emission scenario (B1, A1B, and A2; ordered low to high carbon emissions). Each panel uses an equivalent color ramp, with cooler colors indicating lower probability of suitability and warmer colors indicating greater suitability (range = 0–0.97). Points shown in green are current breeding locations (points in Utah were not used in model development).

Mentions: The Great Basin encompasses over 400,000 km2 of the western United States and is delineated loosely by endorheic watersheds and phytogeographic provinces. We defined our study area using three Level III Ecoregions (Snake River Plain, Northern Basin and Range, and Central Basin and Range; http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions/level_iii_iv.htm) that included parts of southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, Nevada, western Utah, and eastern California (Fig. 1). The Great Basin is characterized by basin and range topography with elevations ranging from near sea level to >4,000 m. Low‐elevation areas are dominated by arid and semi‐arid grasslands and shrublands, which transition into piñon‐juniper woodlands and pine‐fir forests at higher elevations. Precipitation typically ranges from 12 to 35 cm, depending on elevation, and falls mainly as winter snow and early spring rain. Summers are hot and dry throughout the region, with average daily high temperatures from 29.8 to 33.8°C in July, also depending on elevation.


Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

Pilliod DS, Arkle RS, Robertson JM, Murphy MA, Funk WC - Ecol Evol (2015)

Geographic projections of past (1901–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability for Columbia spotted frogs in the Great Basin (black line). Projections were based on applying a model of breeding location climate to similar data from each time or carbon emission scenario (B1, A1B, and A2; ordered low to high carbon emissions). Each panel uses an equivalent color ramp, with cooler colors indicating lower probability of suitability and warmer colors indicating greater suitability (range = 0–0.97). Points shown in green are current breeding locations (points in Utah were not used in model development).
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

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ece31634-fig-0001: Geographic projections of past (1901–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability for Columbia spotted frogs in the Great Basin (black line). Projections were based on applying a model of breeding location climate to similar data from each time or carbon emission scenario (B1, A1B, and A2; ordered low to high carbon emissions). Each panel uses an equivalent color ramp, with cooler colors indicating lower probability of suitability and warmer colors indicating greater suitability (range = 0–0.97). Points shown in green are current breeding locations (points in Utah were not used in model development).
Mentions: The Great Basin encompasses over 400,000 km2 of the western United States and is delineated loosely by endorheic watersheds and phytogeographic provinces. We defined our study area using three Level III Ecoregions (Snake River Plain, Northern Basin and Range, and Central Basin and Range; http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions/level_iii_iv.htm) that included parts of southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, Nevada, western Utah, and eastern California (Fig. 1). The Great Basin is characterized by basin and range topography with elevations ranging from near sea level to >4,000 m. Low‐elevation areas are dominated by arid and semi‐arid grasslands and shrublands, which transition into piñon‐juniper woodlands and pine‐fir forests at higher elevations. Precipitation typically ranges from 12 to 35 cm, depending on elevation, and falls mainly as winter snow and early spring rain. Summers are hot and dry throughout the region, with average daily high temperatures from 29.8 to 33.8°C in July, also depending on elevation.

Bottom Line: Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited.Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal.Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 970 Lusk Street Boise Idaho 83706.

ABSTRACT
Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

No MeSH data available.