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Stylized Facts in Brazilian Vote Distributions.

Calvão AM, Crokidakis N, Anteneodo C - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: In its simplest setting, the model can not explain the cutoff, formed by the most voted candidates, whose success is determined mainly by their peculiar, intrinsic characteristics, such as previous publicity.However, the modeling allows to interpret the scaling of p(v), yielding a predictor of the degree of feedback in the interactions of the electorate.Knowledge of the feedback is relevant beyond the context of elections, since a similar interactivity may occur for other social contagion processes in the same population.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Physics, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.

ABSTRACT
Elections, specially in countries such as Brazil, with an electorate of the order of 100 million people, yield large-scale data-sets embodying valuable information on the dynamics through which individuals influence each other and make choices. In this work we perform an extensive analysis of data sets available for Brazilian proportional elections of legislators and city councilors throughout the period 1970-2014, which embraces two distinct political regimes: a military regime followed by a democratic one. We perform a comparative analysis of elections for legislative positions, in different states and years, through the distribution p(v) of the number of candidates receiving v votes. We show the impact of the different political regimes on the vote distributions. Although p(v) has a common shape, with a scaling behavior, quantitative details change over time and from one electorate to another. In order to interpret the observed features, we propose a multi-species model consisting in a system of nonlinear differential equations, with values of the parameters that reflect the heterogeneity of candidates. In its simplest setting, the model can not explain the cutoff, formed by the most voted candidates, whose success is determined mainly by their peculiar, intrinsic characteristics, such as previous publicity. However, the modeling allows to interpret the scaling of p(v), yielding a predictor of the degree of feedback in the interactions of the electorate. Knowledge of the feedback is relevant beyond the context of elections, since a similar interactivity may occur for other social contagion processes in the same population.

No MeSH data available.


Probability density function (PDF) of the quantity of votes p(v).received by candidates for deputies of São Paulo state in 2014. Data are logarithmically binned [25]. PDFs are normalized (with unitary area). The solid lines represent a power-law fit, as explained in the text, performed over the data interval in the shadowed region.
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pone.0137732.g001: Probability density function (PDF) of the quantity of votes p(v).received by candidates for deputies of São Paulo state in 2014. Data are logarithmically binned [25]. PDFs are normalized (with unitary area). The solid lines represent a power-law fit, as explained in the text, performed over the data interval in the shadowed region.

Mentions: The PDFs of the quantity of valid votes received by candidates, p(v), were estimated by constructing normalized histograms with logarithmic bins [25]. The typical shape of the PDFs in doubly logarithmic plot is illustrated in Fig 1, where we used the data of the elections for deputies of São Paulo state in 2014. The distributions for all the calendars of the several states, including the four most populated ones (São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia), are shown in the Supporting Information (SI).


Stylized Facts in Brazilian Vote Distributions.

Calvão AM, Crokidakis N, Anteneodo C - PLoS ONE (2015)

Probability density function (PDF) of the quantity of votes p(v).received by candidates for deputies of São Paulo state in 2014. Data are logarithmically binned [25]. PDFs are normalized (with unitary area). The solid lines represent a power-law fit, as explained in the text, performed over the data interval in the shadowed region.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4587976&req=5

pone.0137732.g001: Probability density function (PDF) of the quantity of votes p(v).received by candidates for deputies of São Paulo state in 2014. Data are logarithmically binned [25]. PDFs are normalized (with unitary area). The solid lines represent a power-law fit, as explained in the text, performed over the data interval in the shadowed region.
Mentions: The PDFs of the quantity of valid votes received by candidates, p(v), were estimated by constructing normalized histograms with logarithmic bins [25]. The typical shape of the PDFs in doubly logarithmic plot is illustrated in Fig 1, where we used the data of the elections for deputies of São Paulo state in 2014. The distributions for all the calendars of the several states, including the four most populated ones (São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia), are shown in the Supporting Information (SI).

Bottom Line: In its simplest setting, the model can not explain the cutoff, formed by the most voted candidates, whose success is determined mainly by their peculiar, intrinsic characteristics, such as previous publicity.However, the modeling allows to interpret the scaling of p(v), yielding a predictor of the degree of feedback in the interactions of the electorate.Knowledge of the feedback is relevant beyond the context of elections, since a similar interactivity may occur for other social contagion processes in the same population.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Physics, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.

ABSTRACT
Elections, specially in countries such as Brazil, with an electorate of the order of 100 million people, yield large-scale data-sets embodying valuable information on the dynamics through which individuals influence each other and make choices. In this work we perform an extensive analysis of data sets available for Brazilian proportional elections of legislators and city councilors throughout the period 1970-2014, which embraces two distinct political regimes: a military regime followed by a democratic one. We perform a comparative analysis of elections for legislative positions, in different states and years, through the distribution p(v) of the number of candidates receiving v votes. We show the impact of the different political regimes on the vote distributions. Although p(v) has a common shape, with a scaling behavior, quantitative details change over time and from one electorate to another. In order to interpret the observed features, we propose a multi-species model consisting in a system of nonlinear differential equations, with values of the parameters that reflect the heterogeneity of candidates. In its simplest setting, the model can not explain the cutoff, formed by the most voted candidates, whose success is determined mainly by their peculiar, intrinsic characteristics, such as previous publicity. However, the modeling allows to interpret the scaling of p(v), yielding a predictor of the degree of feedback in the interactions of the electorate. Knowledge of the feedback is relevant beyond the context of elections, since a similar interactivity may occur for other social contagion processes in the same population.

No MeSH data available.