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An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters.

de Mattos Neto PS, Cavalcanti GD, Madeiro F, Ferreira TA - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The correction via HS obtained a superior performance, reaching the best results in terms of fitness function and in five out of six metrics.These results also were found when a sensitivity analysis was performed varying the proportions of the sets of training, validation and test.The proposed approach reached consistent results when compared with the forecasting method without correction, showing that it can be an interesting tool for correction of PM forecasters.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.

ABSTRACT
The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth's atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governments to alert the population. Forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been highlighted in the literature due to their performances. In general, three ANN-based approaches have been found for this task: ANN trained via learning algorithms, hybrid systems that combine search algorithms with ANNs, and hybrid systems that combine ANN with other forecasters. Independent of the approach, it is common to suppose that the residuals (error series), obtained from the difference between actual series and forecasting, have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that this assumption is infringed due to: misspecification of the forecasting model, complexity of the time series or temporal patterns of the phenomenon not captured by the forecaster. This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of PM forecasters from residuals modeling. The approach analyzes the remaining residuals recursively in search of temporal patterns. At each iteration, if there are temporal patterns in the residuals, the approach generates the forecasting of the residuals in order to improve the forecasting of the PM time series. The proposed approach can be used with either only one forecaster or by combining two or more forecasting models. In this study, the approach is used to improve the performance of a hybrid system (HS) composed by genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN from residuals modeling performed by two methods, namely, ANN and own hybrid system. Experiments were performed for PM2.5 and PM10 concentration series in Kallio and Vallila stations in Helsinki and evaluated from six metrics. Experimental results show that the proposed approach improves the accuracy of the forecasting method in terms of fitness function for all cases, when compared with the method without correction. The correction via HS obtained a superior performance, reaching the best results in terms of fitness function and in five out of six metrics. These results also were found when a sensitivity analysis was performed varying the proportions of the sets of training, validation and test. The proposed approach reached consistent results when compared with the forecasting method without correction, showing that it can be an interesting tool for correction of PM forecasters.

No MeSH data available.


Forecasting for the PM2.5 concentration time series for Kallio Station (solid lines—actual values; dashed lines—predicted values).
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pone.0138507.g005: Forecasting for the PM2.5 concentration time series for Kallio Station (solid lines—actual values; dashed lines—predicted values).

Mentions: Table 3 shows the results reached with the model HS+C1 and the uncorrected model (HS) according to the ratio defined in the Eq (3). The values greater than 1 for POCID, IA and fitness show that the addition of the correction improved the forecasting of the HS. For MSE, U, MAPE and ARV the logic of the Eq (3) is inverted; values smaller than 1 show forecasting enhancement. For concentration series from Kallio station, greater improvements occurred in U, MAPE and ARV metrics. For concentration series from Vallila station, greater improvement occurred in MAPE metric. In general, the addition of corrections made the forecasting closer to the actual time series. This improvement can be seen by comparing Figs 4(a), 5(a), 6(a) and 7(a) with Figs 4(b), 5(b), 6(b) and 7(b), which are the forecasting for PM2.5 and PM10 concentration time series from Kallio and Vallila stations without and with correction, respectively.


An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters.

de Mattos Neto PS, Cavalcanti GD, Madeiro F, Ferreira TA - PLoS ONE (2015)

Forecasting for the PM2.5 concentration time series for Kallio Station (solid lines—actual values; dashed lines—predicted values).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4587586&req=5

pone.0138507.g005: Forecasting for the PM2.5 concentration time series for Kallio Station (solid lines—actual values; dashed lines—predicted values).
Mentions: Table 3 shows the results reached with the model HS+C1 and the uncorrected model (HS) according to the ratio defined in the Eq (3). The values greater than 1 for POCID, IA and fitness show that the addition of the correction improved the forecasting of the HS. For MSE, U, MAPE and ARV the logic of the Eq (3) is inverted; values smaller than 1 show forecasting enhancement. For concentration series from Kallio station, greater improvements occurred in U, MAPE and ARV metrics. For concentration series from Vallila station, greater improvement occurred in MAPE metric. In general, the addition of corrections made the forecasting closer to the actual time series. This improvement can be seen by comparing Figs 4(a), 5(a), 6(a) and 7(a) with Figs 4(b), 5(b), 6(b) and 7(b), which are the forecasting for PM2.5 and PM10 concentration time series from Kallio and Vallila stations without and with correction, respectively.

Bottom Line: The correction via HS obtained a superior performance, reaching the best results in terms of fitness function and in five out of six metrics.These results also were found when a sensitivity analysis was performed varying the proportions of the sets of training, validation and test.The proposed approach reached consistent results when compared with the forecasting method without correction, showing that it can be an interesting tool for correction of PM forecasters.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.

ABSTRACT
The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth's atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governments to alert the population. Forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been highlighted in the literature due to their performances. In general, three ANN-based approaches have been found for this task: ANN trained via learning algorithms, hybrid systems that combine search algorithms with ANNs, and hybrid systems that combine ANN with other forecasters. Independent of the approach, it is common to suppose that the residuals (error series), obtained from the difference between actual series and forecasting, have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that this assumption is infringed due to: misspecification of the forecasting model, complexity of the time series or temporal patterns of the phenomenon not captured by the forecaster. This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of PM forecasters from residuals modeling. The approach analyzes the remaining residuals recursively in search of temporal patterns. At each iteration, if there are temporal patterns in the residuals, the approach generates the forecasting of the residuals in order to improve the forecasting of the PM time series. The proposed approach can be used with either only one forecaster or by combining two or more forecasting models. In this study, the approach is used to improve the performance of a hybrid system (HS) composed by genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN from residuals modeling performed by two methods, namely, ANN and own hybrid system. Experiments were performed for PM2.5 and PM10 concentration series in Kallio and Vallila stations in Helsinki and evaluated from six metrics. Experimental results show that the proposed approach improves the accuracy of the forecasting method in terms of fitness function for all cases, when compared with the method without correction. The correction via HS obtained a superior performance, reaching the best results in terms of fitness function and in five out of six metrics. These results also were found when a sensitivity analysis was performed varying the proportions of the sets of training, validation and test. The proposed approach reached consistent results when compared with the forecasting method without correction, showing that it can be an interesting tool for correction of PM forecasters.

No MeSH data available.