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Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

Wang S, Fang C, Li G - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions.Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development.Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China.

ABSTRACT
This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The distributions of the variables in box-chart form, for China’s 30 provinces, 1995–2011.
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pone.0138666.g001: The distributions of the variables in box-chart form, for China’s 30 provinces, 1995–2011.

Mentions: Based on the availability of data, this study used annual time series data for 30 provinces in China, in the period 1995–2011. Taiwan and Tibet were excluded on the basis of missing data for most of the years. Provincial data on resident populations, per capita GDP, cement, energy intensity and urbanization levels were derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and provincial statistical yearbooks. To eliminate the price effect, per capita GDP data were adjusted by considering the official price index in the year 2000, which was also used to calculate energy intensity in tons per 104 Yuan. All the data on fossil fuel were derived from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook. The total energy consumption and each fossil fuel were all converted into standard coal measures (units of 104 tons). Annual data on CO2 emissions for each province were estimated using (Eq 1) and (Eq 2). Table 7 displays the statistical description of the five variables in the 30 Chinese provinces, covering the years 1995 to 2011. The distribution parameters of the five variables in China’s 30 provinces are presented as box and whisker plots with the bottom and top of the box representing the 25th and 75th centiles (Fig 1).


Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

Wang S, Fang C, Li G - PLoS ONE (2015)

The distributions of the variables in box-chart form, for China’s 30 provinces, 1995–2011.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4580577&req=5

pone.0138666.g001: The distributions of the variables in box-chart form, for China’s 30 provinces, 1995–2011.
Mentions: Based on the availability of data, this study used annual time series data for 30 provinces in China, in the period 1995–2011. Taiwan and Tibet were excluded on the basis of missing data for most of the years. Provincial data on resident populations, per capita GDP, cement, energy intensity and urbanization levels were derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and provincial statistical yearbooks. To eliminate the price effect, per capita GDP data were adjusted by considering the official price index in the year 2000, which was also used to calculate energy intensity in tons per 104 Yuan. All the data on fossil fuel were derived from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook. The total energy consumption and each fossil fuel were all converted into standard coal measures (units of 104 tons). Annual data on CO2 emissions for each province were estimated using (Eq 1) and (Eq 2). Table 7 displays the statistical description of the five variables in the 30 Chinese provinces, covering the years 1995 to 2011. The distribution parameters of the five variables in China’s 30 provinces are presented as box and whisker plots with the bottom and top of the box representing the 25th and 75th centiles (Fig 1).

Bottom Line: Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions.Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development.Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China.

ABSTRACT
This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus