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Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Influences of combined control measures on EVD spreading in Liberia.As seen from this figure, if we take several control measures together, EVD in Liberia may be well controlled.
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f5: Influences of combined control measures on EVD spreading in Liberia.As seen from this figure, if we take several control measures together, EVD in Liberia may be well controlled.

Mentions: From the above analysis, we find that taking isolation measure on probable cases may be an effective method to control the prevalence of EVD in Liberia. However, the actual situation in Liberia is that it is nearly impossible to isolate all the probable cases. In that case, it is necessary to combine different control measures together. In Fig. 5, we show the influences of combined control measures on Rc. We can see that it is possible to cause basic reproduction number Rc to be less than one for a certain range in parameters space except for Fig. 5(F). Compared with single control measure, combined control strategies are more useful for EVD control in Liberia.


Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Influences of combined control measures on EVD spreading in Liberia.As seen from this figure, if we take several control measures together, EVD in Liberia may be well controlled.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4561958&req=5

f5: Influences of combined control measures on EVD spreading in Liberia.As seen from this figure, if we take several control measures together, EVD in Liberia may be well controlled.
Mentions: From the above analysis, we find that taking isolation measure on probable cases may be an effective method to control the prevalence of EVD in Liberia. However, the actual situation in Liberia is that it is nearly impossible to isolate all the probable cases. In that case, it is necessary to combine different control measures together. In Fig. 5, we show the influences of combined control measures on Rc. We can see that it is possible to cause basic reproduction number Rc to be less than one for a certain range in parameters space except for Fig. 5(F). Compared with single control measure, combined control strategies are more useful for EVD control in Liberia.

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus