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Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Influence of single control measure on EVD spreading in Liberia.This figure indicates that only take single control measure is not effective for EVD control in Liberia.
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f4: Influence of single control measure on EVD spreading in Liberia.This figure indicates that only take single control measure is not effective for EVD control in Liberia.

Mentions: We show Rc with respect to d1 with d2 = 0, d3 = 0, d4 = 0 in Fig. 4(A). Although d1 = 1, we have that Rc = 1.2344 > 1, which means that only taking control measures on suspected cases (IS) is not enough to control EVD. In the case with d1 = 0, d3 = 0, d4 = 0, we find that Rc may be less than one (see Fig. 4(B)). That is to say when isolation measure on probable cases is sufficient to take, EVD in Liberia will ultimately disappear.


Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Influence of single control measure on EVD spreading in Liberia.This figure indicates that only take single control measure is not effective for EVD control in Liberia.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4561958&req=5

f4: Influence of single control measure on EVD spreading in Liberia.This figure indicates that only take single control measure is not effective for EVD control in Liberia.
Mentions: We show Rc with respect to d1 with d2 = 0, d3 = 0, d4 = 0 in Fig. 4(A). Although d1 = 1, we have that Rc = 1.2344 > 1, which means that only taking control measures on suspected cases (IS) is not enough to control EVD. In the case with d1 = 0, d3 = 0, d4 = 0, we find that Rc may be less than one (see Fig. 4(B)). That is to say when isolation measure on probable cases is sufficient to take, EVD in Liberia will ultimately disappear.

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus