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Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Peak arrival time of EVD with respect to β1 and β2.In our results, we estimated that EVD in Liberia may arrival its peak value after 370 days from the day when the first infected case was detected.
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f2: Peak arrival time of EVD with respect to β1 and β2.In our results, we estimated that EVD in Liberia may arrival its peak value after 370 days from the day when the first infected case was detected.

Mentions: In Fig. 2, it is obvious that β1 (or β2) and the peak arrival time of EVD is close to linear increment relationship. This figure illustrates that the peak arrival time arrives sooner when the β1 (or β2) is larger. In other words, we can take measures to decrease β1 (or β2) to cause the delay of peak arrival time and thus less people will be infected by EVD.


Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Peak arrival time of EVD with respect to β1 and β2.In our results, we estimated that EVD in Liberia may arrival its peak value after 370 days from the day when the first infected case was detected.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4561958&req=5

f2: Peak arrival time of EVD with respect to β1 and β2.In our results, we estimated that EVD in Liberia may arrival its peak value after 370 days from the day when the first infected case was detected.
Mentions: In Fig. 2, it is obvious that β1 (or β2) and the peak arrival time of EVD is close to linear increment relationship. This figure illustrates that the peak arrival time arrives sooner when the β1 (or β2) is larger. In other words, we can take measures to decrease β1 (or β2) to cause the delay of peak arrival time and thus less people will be infected by EVD.

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus