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Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Fitting results for real data of EVD from June 29, 2014 to October 7, 2014 with the deterministic model (3), where blue asterisks are real data obtained from24.Estimated basis reproduction number is 2.012, which is consistent with the real cases in Liberia. This figure indicates that EVD will spread as an endemic in the absence of the control measures.
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f1: Fitting results for real data of EVD from June 29, 2014 to October 7, 2014 with the deterministic model (3), where blue asterisks are real data obtained from24.Estimated basis reproduction number is 2.012, which is consistent with the real cases in Liberia. This figure indicates that EVD will spread as an endemic in the absence of the control measures.

Mentions: The actual number of the (the accumulated incidence) can be found in24. The estimation process is as follows: we construct a function and find the suitable parameters value to make f to be least, where n is the number of actual data (In our model, n = 50). Biological meanings of parameters can be found in Table 1. By applying the real data in24 and the equation (1), we can estimate the value of p = 0.1, β1 = 0.1102, β2 = 0.12 and ri = 0.0667. The fitting result for the accumulated incidence is given in Fig. 1.


Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Xia ZQ, Wang SF, Li SL, Huang LY, Zhang WY, Sun GQ, Gai ZT, Jin Z - Sci Rep (2015)

Fitting results for real data of EVD from June 29, 2014 to October 7, 2014 with the deterministic model (3), where blue asterisks are real data obtained from24.Estimated basis reproduction number is 2.012, which is consistent with the real cases in Liberia. This figure indicates that EVD will spread as an endemic in the absence of the control measures.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4561958&req=5

f1: Fitting results for real data of EVD from June 29, 2014 to October 7, 2014 with the deterministic model (3), where blue asterisks are real data obtained from24.Estimated basis reproduction number is 2.012, which is consistent with the real cases in Liberia. This figure indicates that EVD will spread as an endemic in the absence of the control measures.
Mentions: The actual number of the (the accumulated incidence) can be found in24. The estimation process is as follows: we construct a function and find the suitable parameters value to make f to be least, where n is the number of actual data (In our model, n = 50). Biological meanings of parameters can be found in Table 1. By applying the real data in24 and the equation (1), we can estimate the value of p = 0.1, β1 = 0.1102, β2 = 0.12 and ri = 0.0667. The fitting result for the accumulated incidence is given in Fig. 1.

Bottom Line: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976.It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained.The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus