Limits...
Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Ratio for Dengue Fever at the Take-Off Period of Dengue Infection.

- Comput Math Methods Med (2015)

Bottom Line: The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans.Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa.We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia ; Jurusan Matematika, FST, Universitas Nusa Cendana, Kupang, Indonesia.

ABSTRACT
Estimating the basic reproductive ratio ℛ 0 of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate ℛ 0 which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumption that in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment (previous work). In the first proposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infection for mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, we add an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of an infected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment, and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data from SB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008-Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginning of a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of ℛ 0: scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time (daily) and scenario II from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

A time series of the number of daily new cases of dengue infection in the SB Hospital is from Nov. 05, 2008, to Dec. 2012. The cut off period of new cases of dengue is inside the solid box. Every t.o.p. contains i.t.o.p. of dengue infection.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection


getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4561940&req=5

fig6: A time series of the number of daily new cases of dengue infection in the SB Hospital is from Nov. 05, 2008, to Dec. 2012. The cut off period of new cases of dengue is inside the solid box. Every t.o.p. contains i.t.o.p. of dengue infection.

Mentions: This section presents the application of the method to the data of dengue incidence from SB hospital, the estimation value of the t.o.r. λ, the value basic reproductive ratio, and their implication. Calculation of λ is based on the assumption that at the beginning of the infection natural death and recovery have not yet occurred. This assumption can be taken before the eighth day of incidence. Data is divided into five take-off periods (t.o.p.) of infections, which is represented inside the solid box in Figure 6. Each t.o.p. contains an initial take-off period (i.t.o.p.) of dengue infection. Here, we define the i.t.o.p. as being within the range of the fourth and the seventh days of the dengue incidence. The correspondents of the bioepidemiological parameter from human and mosquito are given in Table 2.


Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Ratio for Dengue Fever at the Take-Off Period of Dengue Infection.

- Comput Math Methods Med (2015)

A time series of the number of daily new cases of dengue infection in the SB Hospital is from Nov. 05, 2008, to Dec. 2012. The cut off period of new cases of dengue is inside the solid box. Every t.o.p. contains i.t.o.p. of dengue infection.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4561940&req=5

fig6: A time series of the number of daily new cases of dengue infection in the SB Hospital is from Nov. 05, 2008, to Dec. 2012. The cut off period of new cases of dengue is inside the solid box. Every t.o.p. contains i.t.o.p. of dengue infection.
Mentions: This section presents the application of the method to the data of dengue incidence from SB hospital, the estimation value of the t.o.r. λ, the value basic reproductive ratio, and their implication. Calculation of λ is based on the assumption that at the beginning of the infection natural death and recovery have not yet occurred. This assumption can be taken before the eighth day of incidence. Data is divided into five take-off periods (t.o.p.) of infections, which is represented inside the solid box in Figure 6. Each t.o.p. contains an initial take-off period (i.t.o.p.) of dengue infection. Here, we define the i.t.o.p. as being within the range of the fourth and the seventh days of the dengue incidence. The correspondents of the bioepidemiological parameter from human and mosquito are given in Table 2.

Bottom Line: The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans.Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa.We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia ; Jurusan Matematika, FST, Universitas Nusa Cendana, Kupang, Indonesia.

ABSTRACT
Estimating the basic reproductive ratio ℛ 0 of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate ℛ 0 which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumption that in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment (previous work). In the first proposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infection for mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, we add an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of an infected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment, and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data from SB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008-Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginning of a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of ℛ 0: scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time (daily) and scenario II from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus