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Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Nepalese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Framingham Versus United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study.

Pokharel DR, Khadka D, Sigdel M, Yadav NK, Sapkota LB, Kafle R, Nepal S, Sapkota RM, Choudhary N - N Am J Med Sci (2015)

Bottom Line: The estimated CHD risks were compared using kappa statistics, Pearson's bivariate correlation, Bland-Altman plots, and multiple regression analysis.The Framingham equation predicted higher risk for patients usually below 70 years and showed better association with their current risk profile than the UKPDS risk engine.Based on the predicted risk, Nepalese diabetic patients, particularly those associated with increased numbers of risk factors, bear higher risk of future CHDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biochemistry, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Kaski, Nepal.

ABSTRACT

Background: Predicting future coronary heart disease (CHD) risk with the help of a validated risk prediction function helps clinicians identify diabetic patients at high risk and provide them with appropriate preventive medicine.

Aim: The aim of this study is to estimate and compare 10-year CHD risks of Nepalese diabetic patients using two most common risk prediction functions: The Framingham risk equation and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine that are yet to be validated for Nepalese population.

Patients and methods: We conducted a hospital-based, cross-sectional study on 524 patients with type 2 diabetes. Baseline and biochemical variables of individual patients were recorded and CHD risks were estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk prediction functions. Estimated risks were categorized as low, medium, and high. The estimated CHD risks were compared using kappa statistics, Pearson's bivariate correlation, Bland-Altman plots, and multiple regression analysis.

Results: The mean 10-year CHD risks estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions were 17.7 ± 12.1 and 16.8 ± 15 (bias: 0.88, P > 0.05), respectively, and were always higher in males and older age groups (P < 0.001). The two risk functions showed moderate convergent validity in predicting CHD risks, but differed in stratifying them and explaining the patients' risk profile. The Framingham equation predicted higher risk for patients usually below 70 years and showed better association with their current risk profile than the UKPDS risk engine.

Conclusions: Based on the predicted risk, Nepalese diabetic patients, particularly those associated with increased numbers of risk factors, bear higher risk of future CHDs. Since this study is a cross-sectional one and uses externally validated risk functions, Nepalese clinicians should use them with caution, and preferably in combination with other guidelines, while making important medical decisions in preventive therapy of CHD.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Scatter plot between 10-year CHD risks predicted by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions
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Figure 3: Scatter plot between 10-year CHD risks predicted by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions

Mentions: The Kernel density distribution plot of the predicted CHD risks is shown in Figure 2. The highest Kernel densities for the Framingham and UKPDS risk were at 3.7 and 2.2, respectively. Despite a substantial overlap, the density of the UKPDS risk distribution was more concentrated towards the higher side of the risk spectrum than that of the Framingham risk. These two risks showed nonlinear association with each other [Figure 3]. The difference showed a positive bias (0.88, 95% CI −2.11, 0.34) between the two risk prediction functions with majority of the difference falling within the range of −28.9 to 27.1. The distributions of the difference were all heteroscedastic, with a cone-shaped distribution suggesting a bigger variability among patients with higher CHD risk [Figure 4].


Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Nepalese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Framingham Versus United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study.

Pokharel DR, Khadka D, Sigdel M, Yadav NK, Sapkota LB, Kafle R, Nepal S, Sapkota RM, Choudhary N - N Am J Med Sci (2015)

Scatter plot between 10-year CHD risks predicted by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4561440&req=5

Figure 3: Scatter plot between 10-year CHD risks predicted by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions
Mentions: The Kernel density distribution plot of the predicted CHD risks is shown in Figure 2. The highest Kernel densities for the Framingham and UKPDS risk were at 3.7 and 2.2, respectively. Despite a substantial overlap, the density of the UKPDS risk distribution was more concentrated towards the higher side of the risk spectrum than that of the Framingham risk. These two risks showed nonlinear association with each other [Figure 3]. The difference showed a positive bias (0.88, 95% CI −2.11, 0.34) between the two risk prediction functions with majority of the difference falling within the range of −28.9 to 27.1. The distributions of the difference were all heteroscedastic, with a cone-shaped distribution suggesting a bigger variability among patients with higher CHD risk [Figure 4].

Bottom Line: The estimated CHD risks were compared using kappa statistics, Pearson's bivariate correlation, Bland-Altman plots, and multiple regression analysis.The Framingham equation predicted higher risk for patients usually below 70 years and showed better association with their current risk profile than the UKPDS risk engine.Based on the predicted risk, Nepalese diabetic patients, particularly those associated with increased numbers of risk factors, bear higher risk of future CHDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biochemistry, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Kaski, Nepal.

ABSTRACT

Background: Predicting future coronary heart disease (CHD) risk with the help of a validated risk prediction function helps clinicians identify diabetic patients at high risk and provide them with appropriate preventive medicine.

Aim: The aim of this study is to estimate and compare 10-year CHD risks of Nepalese diabetic patients using two most common risk prediction functions: The Framingham risk equation and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine that are yet to be validated for Nepalese population.

Patients and methods: We conducted a hospital-based, cross-sectional study on 524 patients with type 2 diabetes. Baseline and biochemical variables of individual patients were recorded and CHD risks were estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk prediction functions. Estimated risks were categorized as low, medium, and high. The estimated CHD risks were compared using kappa statistics, Pearson's bivariate correlation, Bland-Altman plots, and multiple regression analysis.

Results: The mean 10-year CHD risks estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions were 17.7 ± 12.1 and 16.8 ± 15 (bias: 0.88, P > 0.05), respectively, and were always higher in males and older age groups (P < 0.001). The two risk functions showed moderate convergent validity in predicting CHD risks, but differed in stratifying them and explaining the patients' risk profile. The Framingham equation predicted higher risk for patients usually below 70 years and showed better association with their current risk profile than the UKPDS risk engine.

Conclusions: Based on the predicted risk, Nepalese diabetic patients, particularly those associated with increased numbers of risk factors, bear higher risk of future CHDs. Since this study is a cross-sectional one and uses externally validated risk functions, Nepalese clinicians should use them with caution, and preferably in combination with other guidelines, while making important medical decisions in preventive therapy of CHD.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus