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Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa.

Kriticos DJ, Brunel S, Ota N, Fried G, Oude Lansink AG, Panetta FD, Prasad TV, Shabbir A, Yaacoby T - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks.Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered.Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

ABSTRACT
Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the 'Swiss Cheese' nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Endangered area considering climate (EI ≥ 1) and suitable habitat types in the CORINE database (http://www.eea.europa.eu/).
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pone.0132807.g005: Endangered area considering climate (EI ≥ 1) and suitable habitat types in the CORINE database (http://www.eea.europa.eu/).

Mentions: Within the EPPO region, the countries at risk are Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Former Republic of Macedonia, France, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malta, Moldova, Morocco, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. The modelled climate suitability pattern is consistent with the reported transient nature of the plant populations in Belgium and Poland (Fig 4) [23,24]. Under the historical (current) climate scenario, more than 2 million ha of the EPPO region is apparently climatically suitable for establishment by P. hysterophorus (Table 2, Fig 5). Of this total area, less than half (approximately 946 000 ha) consists of habitat types considered suitable under the expert model (Table 2). The habitat classes considered at greatest risk (by area) are disturbed (urban, cropping and pastures). Perhaps also of cultural and economic significance is the threat to olive groves (100% of the plantations are at risk), vineyards (90%) and fruit and berry plantations (77%) may be threatened.


Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa.

Kriticos DJ, Brunel S, Ota N, Fried G, Oude Lansink AG, Panetta FD, Prasad TV, Shabbir A, Yaacoby T - PLoS ONE (2015)

Endangered area considering climate (EI ≥ 1) and suitable habitat types in the CORINE database (http://www.eea.europa.eu/).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4556490&req=5

pone.0132807.g005: Endangered area considering climate (EI ≥ 1) and suitable habitat types in the CORINE database (http://www.eea.europa.eu/).
Mentions: Within the EPPO region, the countries at risk are Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Former Republic of Macedonia, France, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malta, Moldova, Morocco, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. The modelled climate suitability pattern is consistent with the reported transient nature of the plant populations in Belgium and Poland (Fig 4) [23,24]. Under the historical (current) climate scenario, more than 2 million ha of the EPPO region is apparently climatically suitable for establishment by P. hysterophorus (Table 2, Fig 5). Of this total area, less than half (approximately 946 000 ha) consists of habitat types considered suitable under the expert model (Table 2). The habitat classes considered at greatest risk (by area) are disturbed (urban, cropping and pastures). Perhaps also of cultural and economic significance is the threat to olive groves (100% of the plantations are at risk), vineyards (90%) and fruit and berry plantations (77%) may be threatened.

Bottom Line: We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks.Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered.Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

ABSTRACT
Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the 'Swiss Cheese' nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus