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What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?

Saux Picart S, Allen JI, Butenschön M, Artioli Y, de Mora L, Wakelin S, Holt J - Clim Change (2014)

Bottom Line: Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers.This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change.Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH Plymouth, UK.

ABSTRACT

Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs and in situ data to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).

No MeSH data available.


Probability of exceedance of the thresholds given by three different future scenarios for 2030-2040 time period for winter nitrate concentration (a), spring-summer chlorophyll concentration (b) and summer oxygen concentration (c) from the whole coastal domain of the model forecast outputs (reference run in red; Global Community run in blue; World Market run in green)
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Fig6: Probability of exceedance of the thresholds given by three different future scenarios for 2030-2040 time period for winter nitrate concentration (a), spring-summer chlorophyll concentration (b) and summer oxygen concentration (c) from the whole coastal domain of the model forecast outputs (reference run in red; Global Community run in blue; World Market run in green)

Mentions: Figure 6 shows the application of the same transfer function to the three forecast scenarios (reference, GC and WM, see Section 2.2). The reference run and the PD run give similar probability of exceedance (compare Figs. 6 and 5), suggesting that the eutrophication risk may not be sensitive to the climate change signal out to 2040. At this time scale, natural variability probably has a higher impact on eutrophication than climate change and input of nutrient from the rivers.Fig. 6


What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?

Saux Picart S, Allen JI, Butenschön M, Artioli Y, de Mora L, Wakelin S, Holt J - Clim Change (2014)

Probability of exceedance of the thresholds given by three different future scenarios for 2030-2040 time period for winter nitrate concentration (a), spring-summer chlorophyll concentration (b) and summer oxygen concentration (c) from the whole coastal domain of the model forecast outputs (reference run in red; Global Community run in blue; World Market run in green)
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4555347&req=5

Fig6: Probability of exceedance of the thresholds given by three different future scenarios for 2030-2040 time period for winter nitrate concentration (a), spring-summer chlorophyll concentration (b) and summer oxygen concentration (c) from the whole coastal domain of the model forecast outputs (reference run in red; Global Community run in blue; World Market run in green)
Mentions: Figure 6 shows the application of the same transfer function to the three forecast scenarios (reference, GC and WM, see Section 2.2). The reference run and the PD run give similar probability of exceedance (compare Figs. 6 and 5), suggesting that the eutrophication risk may not be sensitive to the climate change signal out to 2040. At this time scale, natural variability probably has a higher impact on eutrophication than climate change and input of nutrient from the rivers.Fig. 6

Bottom Line: Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers.This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change.Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH Plymouth, UK.

ABSTRACT

Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs and in situ data to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).

No MeSH data available.