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Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model.

Zhang Q, Wang D - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early.We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset.In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China. zqx121981@126.com.

ABSTRACT
In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number RH0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The effects of antiviral prophylaxis and voluntary self-isolation are displayed in two scenarios: (a) one day delay on dispensing antiviral drugs; (b) two days delay on dispensing antiviral drugs.
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ijerph-12-09750-f001: The effects of antiviral prophylaxis and voluntary self-isolation are displayed in two scenarios: (a) one day delay on dispensing antiviral drugs; (b) two days delay on dispensing antiviral drugs.

Mentions: Figure 1 shows the effects of the above six strategies on reducing the household reproduction number, , where and other parameters assume the values in Table 1. The curves in Figure 1 show the values of the parameter pairs when equals one in the above six scenarios. For each curve in Figure 1, the parameter pairs that satisfy lie above the curve, and those that satisfy lie below the curve.


Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model.

Zhang Q, Wang D - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

The effects of antiviral prophylaxis and voluntary self-isolation are displayed in two scenarios: (a) one day delay on dispensing antiviral drugs; (b) two days delay on dispensing antiviral drugs.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4555310&req=5

ijerph-12-09750-f001: The effects of antiviral prophylaxis and voluntary self-isolation are displayed in two scenarios: (a) one day delay on dispensing antiviral drugs; (b) two days delay on dispensing antiviral drugs.
Mentions: Figure 1 shows the effects of the above six strategies on reducing the household reproduction number, , where and other parameters assume the values in Table 1. The curves in Figure 1 show the values of the parameter pairs when equals one in the above six scenarios. For each curve in Figure 1, the parameter pairs that satisfy lie above the curve, and those that satisfy lie below the curve.

Bottom Line: We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early.We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset.In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China. zqx121981@126.com.

ABSTRACT
In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number RH0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus