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The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China.

Zhu L, Yuan Z, Wang X, Li J, Wang L, Liu Y, Xue F, Liu Y - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution was used to examine the nonlinear lagged effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence.After controlling potential confounders, temperature showed significant association with HFMD incidence and the two cities demonstrated different impact modes ( I2= 96.1%; p < 0.01).The results highlight the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence and the impact pattern may be modified by geographical localities.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China. zhu.lin@outlook.com.

ABSTRACT
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a substantial burden throughout the Asia-Pacific countries over the past decades. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is important to understand the temperature-disease association for HFMD in different geographical locations. This study aims to assess the impact of temperature on HFMD incidence in an inland city and a coastal city and investigate the heterogeneity of temperature-disease associations. Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the study areas were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. A total of 108,377 HFMD cases were included in this study. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution was used to examine the nonlinear lagged effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence. After controlling potential confounders, temperature showed significant association with HFMD incidence and the two cities demonstrated different impact modes ( I2= 96.1%; p < 0.01). The results highlight the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence and the impact pattern may be modified by geographical localities. Our findings can be a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Relative risks of daily HFMD by daily mean temperature along 14 lag days in Jinan and Qingdao, adjusting for relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine duration, DOW, holidays, seasonal trend, and long trend: (a) Jinan, (b) Qingdao).
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ijerph-12-08691-f003: Relative risks of daily HFMD by daily mean temperature along 14 lag days in Jinan and Qingdao, adjusting for relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine duration, DOW, holidays, seasonal trend, and long trend: (a) Jinan, (b) Qingdao).

Mentions: Figure 3 displays the general pattern of relative risks (RR), as a function of temperature and lag, by showing three-dimensional plots of RR along temperature and 14 lag days. Overall, the estimated effects of temperature on HFMD incidence were non-linear, with higher relative risks at hotter temperatures. Detailed lag structures for temperature effects at a specific lag day (0, 3, 7,11, and 14 day) were shown in Figure 4 (Jinan) and Figure 5 (Qingdao). It was found that the high temperature had acute and short-term effects and then declined rapidly along the lag days. In addition, the high temperature effects in Qingdao appeared to be stronger and then diminished faster, while in Jinan the high temperature effects persisted longer.


The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China.

Zhu L, Yuan Z, Wang X, Li J, Wang L, Liu Y, Xue F, Liu Y - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Relative risks of daily HFMD by daily mean temperature along 14 lag days in Jinan and Qingdao, adjusting for relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine duration, DOW, holidays, seasonal trend, and long trend: (a) Jinan, (b) Qingdao).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4555242&req=5

ijerph-12-08691-f003: Relative risks of daily HFMD by daily mean temperature along 14 lag days in Jinan and Qingdao, adjusting for relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine duration, DOW, holidays, seasonal trend, and long trend: (a) Jinan, (b) Qingdao).
Mentions: Figure 3 displays the general pattern of relative risks (RR), as a function of temperature and lag, by showing three-dimensional plots of RR along temperature and 14 lag days. Overall, the estimated effects of temperature on HFMD incidence were non-linear, with higher relative risks at hotter temperatures. Detailed lag structures for temperature effects at a specific lag day (0, 3, 7,11, and 14 day) were shown in Figure 4 (Jinan) and Figure 5 (Qingdao). It was found that the high temperature had acute and short-term effects and then declined rapidly along the lag days. In addition, the high temperature effects in Qingdao appeared to be stronger and then diminished faster, while in Jinan the high temperature effects persisted longer.

Bottom Line: A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution was used to examine the nonlinear lagged effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence.After controlling potential confounders, temperature showed significant association with HFMD incidence and the two cities demonstrated different impact modes ( I2= 96.1%; p < 0.01).The results highlight the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence and the impact pattern may be modified by geographical localities.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China. zhu.lin@outlook.com.

ABSTRACT
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a substantial burden throughout the Asia-Pacific countries over the past decades. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is important to understand the temperature-disease association for HFMD in different geographical locations. This study aims to assess the impact of temperature on HFMD incidence in an inland city and a coastal city and investigate the heterogeneity of temperature-disease associations. Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the study areas were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. A total of 108,377 HFMD cases were included in this study. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution was used to examine the nonlinear lagged effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence. After controlling potential confounders, temperature showed significant association with HFMD incidence and the two cities demonstrated different impact modes ( I2= 96.1%; p < 0.01). The results highlight the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence and the impact pattern may be modified by geographical localities. Our findings can be a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus