Limits...
Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios.

Zuliani A, Massolo A, Lysyk T, Johnson G, Marshall S, Berger K, Cork SC - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors).Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and considerations.The results of this study can inform the development of cost effective surveillance programs, targeting areas within the predicted limits of C. sonorensis geographical occurrence under current and future climatic conditions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Ecosystem and Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

ABSTRACT
Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA) and south-central Alberta (Canada) between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021-2040) and 2050 (2041-2060). Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors). Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and considerations. The results of this study can inform the development of cost effective surveillance programs, targeting areas within the predicted limits of C. sonorensis geographical occurrence under current and future climatic conditions.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Change analysis into and out of 60% (0.6 probability) threshold category for Culicoides sonorensis occurrence probability as predicted with the Maximum Entropy algorithm under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) projected for 2010–2030.Table represents both percent change and percent area of entire study area for loss, gain, and net change in pixels for each probability class category expressed as percentage (Low-low = 0–20%; low-mod = 21–40%; Moderate = 41–60%; Mod-high = 61–80%; and high-high = 81–100% probability of occurrence). Adjacent table visually indicates gains and losses (of percent change) for each class category. Percent change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class divided by area of a class in later image, multiplied by one hundred. Percent area change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class, divided by the total area of the land cover map, multiplied by one hundred.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4547716&req=5

pone.0130294.g006: Change analysis into and out of 60% (0.6 probability) threshold category for Culicoides sonorensis occurrence probability as predicted with the Maximum Entropy algorithm under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) projected for 2010–2030.Table represents both percent change and percent area of entire study area for loss, gain, and net change in pixels for each probability class category expressed as percentage (Low-low = 0–20%; low-mod = 21–40%; Moderate = 41–60%; Mod-high = 61–80%; and high-high = 81–100% probability of occurrence). Adjacent table visually indicates gains and losses (of percent change) for each class category. Percent change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class divided by area of a class in later image, multiplied by one hundred. Percent area change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class, divided by the total area of the land cover map, multiplied by one hundred.

Mentions: By the 2030s, a 0.95% net gain in the percent area falling within the 61–100% probability classes (mod-high to high-high) was predicted under the RCP 2.6 scenario—increasing to an additional 1.5% under the more extreme RCP 8.5 scenario (Figs 5C and 6C).


Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios.

Zuliani A, Massolo A, Lysyk T, Johnson G, Marshall S, Berger K, Cork SC - PLoS ONE (2015)

Change analysis into and out of 60% (0.6 probability) threshold category for Culicoides sonorensis occurrence probability as predicted with the Maximum Entropy algorithm under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) projected for 2010–2030.Table represents both percent change and percent area of entire study area for loss, gain, and net change in pixels for each probability class category expressed as percentage (Low-low = 0–20%; low-mod = 21–40%; Moderate = 41–60%; Mod-high = 61–80%; and high-high = 81–100% probability of occurrence). Adjacent table visually indicates gains and losses (of percent change) for each class category. Percent change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class divided by area of a class in later image, multiplied by one hundred. Percent area change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class, divided by the total area of the land cover map, multiplied by one hundred.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4547716&req=5

pone.0130294.g006: Change analysis into and out of 60% (0.6 probability) threshold category for Culicoides sonorensis occurrence probability as predicted with the Maximum Entropy algorithm under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) projected for 2010–2030.Table represents both percent change and percent area of entire study area for loss, gain, and net change in pixels for each probability class category expressed as percentage (Low-low = 0–20%; low-mod = 21–40%; Moderate = 41–60%; Mod-high = 61–80%; and high-high = 81–100% probability of occurrence). Adjacent table visually indicates gains and losses (of percent change) for each class category. Percent change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class divided by area of a class in later image, multiplied by one hundred. Percent area change is defined by the number of pixels changed for a class, divided by the total area of the land cover map, multiplied by one hundred.
Mentions: By the 2030s, a 0.95% net gain in the percent area falling within the 61–100% probability classes (mod-high to high-high) was predicted under the RCP 2.6 scenario—increasing to an additional 1.5% under the more extreme RCP 8.5 scenario (Figs 5C and 6C).

Bottom Line: This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors).Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and considerations.The results of this study can inform the development of cost effective surveillance programs, targeting areas within the predicted limits of C. sonorensis geographical occurrence under current and future climatic conditions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Ecosystem and Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

ABSTRACT
Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA) and south-central Alberta (Canada) between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021-2040) and 2050 (2041-2060). Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors). Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and considerations. The results of this study can inform the development of cost effective surveillance programs, targeting areas within the predicted limits of C. sonorensis geographical occurrence under current and future climatic conditions.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus