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Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

Li T, Ban J, Horton RM, Bader DA, Huang G, Sun Q, Kinney PL - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range.The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s.The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian 100875, Beijing, China [2] Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng, 100050 Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT
Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Percentage change (average over 5 models) in heat-related deaths from respiratory diseases in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s versus the 1980s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.
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f4: Percentage change (average over 5 models) in heat-related deaths from respiratory diseases in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s versus the 1980s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.

Mentions: Figures 3 and 4 report the percentage changes in the estimated heat-related deaths from two diseases in two scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared to baseline mortality. A similar pattern of change in additional deaths was also observed in the percentage change. The integrated results of the five GCMs indicated large increases for both diseases under different scenarios across all of the decades. The percentage in the RCP8.5 scenario increases more sharply than in the RCP4.5 scenario after the 2020s and becomes more obviously different in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projected changes for the 2050s in the heat-related mortality of cardiovascular diseases of different scenarios range from an increase of 47.8% to an increase of 73.8% compared with the 1980 s; the 2080 s change ranged from an increase of 69.0% to an increase of 134% compared with the 1980 s. Similar to the changes in the cardiovascular diseases, the projected 2050 s changes in heat-related mortality from respiratory diseases in different scenarios ranged from an increase of 48.6% to an increase of 74.6% compared with the 1980s; the 2080s changes range from an increase of 69.8% to an increase of 135% compared with the 1980s. These results indicate the potential large effect climate change could have on future heat-related mortality.


Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

Li T, Ban J, Horton RM, Bader DA, Huang G, Sun Q, Kinney PL - Sci Rep (2015)

Percentage change (average over 5 models) in heat-related deaths from respiratory diseases in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s versus the 1980s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4527092&req=5

f4: Percentage change (average over 5 models) in heat-related deaths from respiratory diseases in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s versus the 1980s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.
Mentions: Figures 3 and 4 report the percentage changes in the estimated heat-related deaths from two diseases in two scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared to baseline mortality. A similar pattern of change in additional deaths was also observed in the percentage change. The integrated results of the five GCMs indicated large increases for both diseases under different scenarios across all of the decades. The percentage in the RCP8.5 scenario increases more sharply than in the RCP4.5 scenario after the 2020s and becomes more obviously different in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projected changes for the 2050s in the heat-related mortality of cardiovascular diseases of different scenarios range from an increase of 47.8% to an increase of 73.8% compared with the 1980 s; the 2080 s change ranged from an increase of 69.0% to an increase of 134% compared with the 1980 s. Similar to the changes in the cardiovascular diseases, the projected 2050 s changes in heat-related mortality from respiratory diseases in different scenarios ranged from an increase of 48.6% to an increase of 74.6% compared with the 1980s; the 2080s changes range from an increase of 69.8% to an increase of 135% compared with the 1980s. These results indicate the potential large effect climate change could have on future heat-related mortality.

Bottom Line: Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range.The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s.The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian 100875, Beijing, China [2] Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng, 100050 Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT
Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus