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Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

Li T, Ban J, Horton RM, Bader DA, Huang G, Sun Q, Kinney PL - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range.The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s.The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian 100875, Beijing, China [2] Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng, 100050 Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT
Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Distribution of heat-related additional deaths for respiratory diseases in the 1980s , 2020s, 2050, and 2080s for 5 climate models and for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.The box symbols represent, from bottom to top, the minimum, 25th percentile, 50th percentile, 75th percentile and maximum across the 5 models.
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f2: Distribution of heat-related additional deaths for respiratory diseases in the 1980s , 2020s, 2050, and 2080s for 5 climate models and for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.The box symbols represent, from bottom to top, the minimum, 25th percentile, 50th percentile, 75th percentile and maximum across the 5 models.

Mentions: Figures 1 and 2 graphically summarize the projected absolute changes in heat-related additional deaths from the 1980s to the 2080s. The results are presented separately for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths under different scenarios. For all 5 GCMs and both RCP climate scenarios, additional heat-related deaths increase compared to the baseline as time progresses. The median numbers of additional cardiovascular deaths in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under RCP 4.5 were 529, 734 and 844, respectively, and the increasing percentage ranged across GCMs from −2% to 37%, 7% to 71% and 18% to 102% in the2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, with a mean increase of 18.4%, 47.8%, 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared with the 1980s. The median numbers of additional cardiovascular deaths under RCP 8.5 were higher, with values of 501, 817, 1168 in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, with a mean increase of 16.6%, 73.8% and 134% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared to the baseline year. The same increasing pattern was seen in respiratory disease under the two scenarios: in the RCP4.5 scenario, there were 155, 216 and 248 additional deaths in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, with an average increasing percentage of 18.80%, 48.60% and 69.80% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Under RCP 8.5, the increases were 17.0%, 74.6% and 135% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Therefore, larger increases were seen in the RCP8.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario increased more rapidly from the 1980s to the 2080s compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. This situation was seen in both cardiovascular and respiratory disease. The detailed information is presented in Supplementary Table S2.


Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

Li T, Ban J, Horton RM, Bader DA, Huang G, Sun Q, Kinney PL - Sci Rep (2015)

Distribution of heat-related additional deaths for respiratory diseases in the 1980s , 2020s, 2050, and 2080s for 5 climate models and for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.The box symbols represent, from bottom to top, the minimum, 25th percentile, 50th percentile, 75th percentile and maximum across the 5 models.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4527092&req=5

f2: Distribution of heat-related additional deaths for respiratory diseases in the 1980s , 2020s, 2050, and 2080s for 5 climate models and for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios.The box symbols represent, from bottom to top, the minimum, 25th percentile, 50th percentile, 75th percentile and maximum across the 5 models.
Mentions: Figures 1 and 2 graphically summarize the projected absolute changes in heat-related additional deaths from the 1980s to the 2080s. The results are presented separately for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths under different scenarios. For all 5 GCMs and both RCP climate scenarios, additional heat-related deaths increase compared to the baseline as time progresses. The median numbers of additional cardiovascular deaths in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under RCP 4.5 were 529, 734 and 844, respectively, and the increasing percentage ranged across GCMs from −2% to 37%, 7% to 71% and 18% to 102% in the2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, with a mean increase of 18.4%, 47.8%, 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared with the 1980s. The median numbers of additional cardiovascular deaths under RCP 8.5 were higher, with values of 501, 817, 1168 in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, with a mean increase of 16.6%, 73.8% and 134% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared to the baseline year. The same increasing pattern was seen in respiratory disease under the two scenarios: in the RCP4.5 scenario, there were 155, 216 and 248 additional deaths in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, with an average increasing percentage of 18.80%, 48.60% and 69.80% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Under RCP 8.5, the increases were 17.0%, 74.6% and 135% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Therefore, larger increases were seen in the RCP8.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario increased more rapidly from the 1980s to the 2080s compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. This situation was seen in both cardiovascular and respiratory disease. The detailed information is presented in Supplementary Table S2.

Bottom Line: Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range.The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s.The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian 100875, Beijing, China [2] Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng, 100050 Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT
Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus