Limits...
The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China.

Yang J, Ou CQ, Guo Y, Li L, Guo C, Chen PY, Lin HL, Liu QY - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China.The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75(th) to 99(th) percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16).This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China [2] Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.

ABSTRACT
Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25(th) to 1(st) percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75(th) to 99(th) percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Cold and hot effect on YLL due to mortality categories along days of lag in Guangzhou, China during 2003–2007.Cold effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C decrease from 25th percentile temperature to 1st percentile of temperature; hot effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C increase from 75th percentile temperature to 99th percentile of temperature.
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f3: Cold and hot effect on YLL due to mortality categories along days of lag in Guangzhou, China during 2003–2007.Cold effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C decrease from 25th percentile temperature to 1st percentile of temperature; hot effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C increase from 75th percentile temperature to 99th percentile of temperature.

Mentions: Figure 3 shows the lag structures of cold and hot effects on YLL. In general, the effects of hot temperature appeared acutely and lasted for 4 days, while cold effects peaked at 2 days after exposure and declined slightly with duration of 14 days. Therefore, we present the accumulative hot and cold effects along 14 days. Moreover, not statistically significant harvesting effect was observed for hot and cold temperature on YLL due to mortality categories, respectively.


The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China.

Yang J, Ou CQ, Guo Y, Li L, Guo C, Chen PY, Lin HL, Liu QY - Sci Rep (2015)

Cold and hot effect on YLL due to mortality categories along days of lag in Guangzhou, China during 2003–2007.Cold effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C decrease from 25th percentile temperature to 1st percentile of temperature; hot effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C increase from 75th percentile temperature to 99th percentile of temperature.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4527090&req=5

f3: Cold and hot effect on YLL due to mortality categories along days of lag in Guangzhou, China during 2003–2007.Cold effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C decrease from 25th percentile temperature to 1st percentile of temperature; hot effect was presented by YLL changes per 1 °C increase from 75th percentile temperature to 99th percentile of temperature.
Mentions: Figure 3 shows the lag structures of cold and hot effects on YLL. In general, the effects of hot temperature appeared acutely and lasted for 4 days, while cold effects peaked at 2 days after exposure and declined slightly with duration of 14 days. Therefore, we present the accumulative hot and cold effects along 14 days. Moreover, not statistically significant harvesting effect was observed for hot and cold temperature on YLL due to mortality categories, respectively.

Bottom Line: We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China.The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75(th) to 99(th) percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16).This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China [2] Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.

ABSTRACT
Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25(th) to 1(st) percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75(th) to 99(th) percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus