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Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.


Evolution of the mean annual air temperature, the mean annual rainfall (simple moving averages over the previous 10 years), and the expected variability of four species occurrences within the Salzach catchment (D-SALZ) from 1810 to 2069: B. barbatula, B. barbus, P. phoxinus and S. trutta. Mean annual probability of presence (bold solid line) and associated confidence interval (95 %, grey lines). From 2000 on, the considered climate values are those from the IPCC scenario A1
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Fig4: Evolution of the mean annual air temperature, the mean annual rainfall (simple moving averages over the previous 10 years), and the expected variability of four species occurrences within the Salzach catchment (D-SALZ) from 1810 to 2069: B. barbatula, B. barbus, P. phoxinus and S. trutta. Mean annual probability of presence (bold solid line) and associated confidence interval (95 %, grey lines). From 2000 on, the considered climate values are those from the IPCC scenario A1

Mentions: The reconstruction of the potential temporal variability of the species’ mean annual probabilities of occurrence enables comparing the past and the potential future species distribution (Fig. 4). The mean annual rainfall (all mean values as moving averages over the previous 10 years) were similar during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (1,447 and 1,490 mm, respectively), as were the mean air temperatures (4.48 and 4.69 °C, respectively). As a consequence, the STP values were quite similar during these two last centuries. From 2000 to 2069, the mean air temperature would increase by 2.69 °C, rising to 8.4 °C. From 2010 on, the fish have been and will continue experiencing, each year, a mean air temperature always higher than maximum air temperature recorded during the last two centuries (5.64 °C). In contrast, the range of the mean annual rainfall expected during the first half of the twenty first century is comparable to the range observed during the nineteenth and the twentieth century (1,273–1,576 and 1,280–1,555 mm, respectively).Fig. 4


Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Evolution of the mean annual air temperature, the mean annual rainfall (simple moving averages over the previous 10 years), and the expected variability of four species occurrences within the Salzach catchment (D-SALZ) from 1810 to 2069: B. barbatula, B. barbus, P. phoxinus and S. trutta. Mean annual probability of presence (bold solid line) and associated confidence interval (95 %, grey lines). From 2000 on, the considered climate values are those from the IPCC scenario A1
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4525805&req=5

Fig4: Evolution of the mean annual air temperature, the mean annual rainfall (simple moving averages over the previous 10 years), and the expected variability of four species occurrences within the Salzach catchment (D-SALZ) from 1810 to 2069: B. barbatula, B. barbus, P. phoxinus and S. trutta. Mean annual probability of presence (bold solid line) and associated confidence interval (95 %, grey lines). From 2000 on, the considered climate values are those from the IPCC scenario A1
Mentions: The reconstruction of the potential temporal variability of the species’ mean annual probabilities of occurrence enables comparing the past and the potential future species distribution (Fig. 4). The mean annual rainfall (all mean values as moving averages over the previous 10 years) were similar during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (1,447 and 1,490 mm, respectively), as were the mean air temperatures (4.48 and 4.69 °C, respectively). As a consequence, the STP values were quite similar during these two last centuries. From 2000 to 2069, the mean air temperature would increase by 2.69 °C, rising to 8.4 °C. From 2010 on, the fish have been and will continue experiencing, each year, a mean air temperature always higher than maximum air temperature recorded during the last two centuries (5.64 °C). In contrast, the range of the mean annual rainfall expected during the first half of the twenty first century is comparable to the range observed during the nineteenth and the twentieth century (1,273–1,576 and 1,280–1,555 mm, respectively).Fig. 4

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.