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Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Plots of expected (sum of probability values) vs historically observed occurrence values of the 14 species (black dots) for the four areas (D-SALZ, R-ALPS, R-VALL, R-SAON). Confidence interval limits (95 %, hatched lines) around the regression lines (bold solid lines). Regression line of slope 1 and intercept 0 (solid line)
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Fig3: Plots of expected (sum of probability values) vs historically observed occurrence values of the 14 species (black dots) for the four areas (D-SALZ, R-ALPS, R-VALL, R-SAON). Confidence interval limits (95 %, hatched lines) around the regression lines (bold solid lines). Regression line of slope 1 and intercept 0 (solid line)

Mentions: The regressions (Fig. 3) of the 14 species-specific OBS on the corresponding EXP were highly significant for D-SALZ, R-ALPS and R_VALL (p < 0.001), but only at p < 0.01 for R-SAON (Table 4). The determination coefficients were excellent for R-ALPS and D-SALZ (over 0.91) but lower for R-VALL (0.706). For R-SAON, only 50 % of the variability of OBS was explained by EXP. The intercept and the slope of the regression lines were not statistically different from respectively zero and one (Table 4) for D-SALZ, R-ALPS and R-VALL. But these two parameters differed significantly from, respectively, zero and one for R-SAON.Fig. 3


Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Plots of expected (sum of probability values) vs historically observed occurrence values of the 14 species (black dots) for the four areas (D-SALZ, R-ALPS, R-VALL, R-SAON). Confidence interval limits (95 %, hatched lines) around the regression lines (bold solid lines). Regression line of slope 1 and intercept 0 (solid line)
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4525805&req=5

Fig3: Plots of expected (sum of probability values) vs historically observed occurrence values of the 14 species (black dots) for the four areas (D-SALZ, R-ALPS, R-VALL, R-SAON). Confidence interval limits (95 %, hatched lines) around the regression lines (bold solid lines). Regression line of slope 1 and intercept 0 (solid line)
Mentions: The regressions (Fig. 3) of the 14 species-specific OBS on the corresponding EXP were highly significant for D-SALZ, R-ALPS and R_VALL (p < 0.001), but only at p < 0.01 for R-SAON (Table 4). The determination coefficients were excellent for R-ALPS and D-SALZ (over 0.91) but lower for R-VALL (0.706). For R-SAON, only 50 % of the variability of OBS was explained by EXP. The intercept and the slope of the regression lines were not statistically different from respectively zero and one (Table 4) for D-SALZ, R-ALPS and R-VALL. But these two parameters differed significantly from, respectively, zero and one for R-SAON.Fig. 3

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus