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Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Example of an historical map of the Rhône catchment: the Ain district map, upstream from the town of Lyon (Léger 1927). Details from the area around the town of Pont d’Ain, along the course of the river Ain. The species names are indicated by capital letters
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Fig2: Example of an historical map of the Rhône catchment: the Ain district map, upstream from the town of Lyon (Léger 1927). Details from the area around the town of Pont d’Ain, along the course of the river Ain. The species names are indicated by capital letters

Mentions: All these maps provided the list of species and their location in the different river segments of the hydrographic network (Fig. 2). For our analyses, fish species were identified based on current taxonomy (Kottelat and Freyhof 2007). Most fish species could be determined without doubt, but the identification of some at the species level is not absolutely certain (e.g. Alburnus alburnus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Petromyzontidae).Fig. 2


Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Example of an historical map of the Rhône catchment: the Ain district map, upstream from the town of Lyon (Léger 1927). Details from the area around the town of Pont d’Ain, along the course of the river Ain. The species names are indicated by capital letters
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4525805&req=5

Fig2: Example of an historical map of the Rhône catchment: the Ain district map, upstream from the town of Lyon (Léger 1927). Details from the area around the town of Pont d’Ain, along the course of the river Ain. The species names are indicated by capital letters
Mentions: All these maps provided the list of species and their location in the different river segments of the hydrographic network (Fig. 2). For our analyses, fish species were identified based on current taxonomy (Kottelat and Freyhof 2007). Most fish species could be determined without doubt, but the identification of some at the species level is not absolutely certain (e.g. Alburnus alburnus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Petromyzontidae).Fig. 2

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus