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Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.


Studied areas in the Danube and Rhône catchments: Salzach River (D-SALZ), Rhône alpine tributaries (R-ALPS), Rhône valley tributaries (R-VALL) and Saône River (R-SAON)
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Fig1: Studied areas in the Danube and Rhône catchments: Salzach River (D-SALZ), Rhône alpine tributaries (R-ALPS), Rhône valley tributaries (R-VALL) and Saône River (R-SAON)

Mentions: The study area comprised river sections belonging to the Danube (D) and to the Rhône (R) catchment (Fig. 1). The Salzach River, with a total catchment area of 6,734 km2 (D-SALZ) is a 225-km-long tributary of the Inn River, which is itself the largest sub-catchment of the Upper Danube (251 m3 s−1 at the confluence of the Inn River). The discharge regime is snow-dominated but with glacial influences in the southern upstream part of the catchment (Muhar et al. 1996). The mountainous climate is alpine with low temperatures and a high annual rainfall.Fig. 1


Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Pont D, Logez M, Carrel G, Rogers C, Haidvogl G - Aquat Sci (2015)

Studied areas in the Danube and Rhône catchments: Salzach River (D-SALZ), Rhône alpine tributaries (R-ALPS), Rhône valley tributaries (R-VALL) and Saône River (R-SAON)
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4525805&req=5

Fig1: Studied areas in the Danube and Rhône catchments: Salzach River (D-SALZ), Rhône alpine tributaries (R-ALPS), Rhône valley tributaries (R-VALL) and Saône River (R-SAON)
Mentions: The study area comprised river sections belonging to the Danube (D) and to the Rhône (R) catchment (Fig. 1). The Salzach River, with a total catchment area of 6,734 km2 (D-SALZ) is a 225-km-long tributary of the Inn River, which is itself the largest sub-catchment of the Upper Danube (251 m3 s−1 at the confluence of the Inn River). The discharge regime is snow-dominated but with glacial influences in the southern upstream part of the catchment (Muhar et al. 1996). The mountainous climate is alpine with low temperatures and a high annual rainfall.Fig. 1

Bottom Line: We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability.The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers.Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes-CS 10030, 92761 Antony, France.

ABSTRACT

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

No MeSH data available.