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Seasonal and temporal trends in all-cause and malaria mortality in rural Burkina Faso, 1998-2007.

Otte im Kampe E, Müller O, Sie A, Becher H - Malar. J. (2015)

Bottom Line: Seasonal and temporal trends were modelled with parametric Poisson regression adjusted for sex, area of residence and year of death.Overall, 7,378 deaths occurred corresponding to a mortality rate of 11.9/1,000 with highest rates in infants (56.8/1,000) and children (22.0/1,000).The seasonal trend is well described parametrically with a sinusoidal function.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany. eotteimkampe@yahoo.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: High mortality levels in sub-Saharan Africa are still a major public health problem. Children are the most affected group with malaria as one of the major causes of death in this region. To plan health interventions, reliable empirical information on cause-specific mortality patterns is essential, yet such data are often not available in developing countries. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) implementing the verbal autopsy (VA) method provide such data on a longitudinal basis. Physician Coded VA is usually used to determine cause of death, but recently a computerized method, Interpreting VA (InterVA) was alternatively introduced. This study investigates the effect of season on all-cause and malaria mortality analysing cause of death data from 1998 to 2007 obtained by the Nouna HDSS in rural Burkina Faso and derived by InterVA.

Methods: Monthly mortality rates were calculated for different age groups (infants, children, adolescents, adults, elderly). Seasonal and temporal trends were modelled with parametric Poisson regression adjusted for sex, area of residence and year of death.

Results: Overall, 7,378 deaths occurred corresponding to a mortality rate of 11.9/1,000 with highest rates in infants (56.8/1,000) and children (22.0/1,000). Young children were most affected by malaria. Malaria mortality patterns in children showed significantly higher rates during the rainy season and a stagnant long-term trend. The seasonal trend is well described parametrically with a sinusoidal function. InterVA assigned about half as many deaths to malaria than physicians.

Conclusions: Malaria mortality remains highly seasonal in rural Burkina Faso. The InterVA method appears to determine reasonably well seasonal mortality patterns, which should be considered for the planning of health resources and activities.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Relative effect of month of death by age group, Nouna HDSS 1998–2007. Infants <1 (green), children 1–4 (orange), adolescents 5–14 (black), adults 15–59 (purple), elderly 60+ (blue), grey shaded area (rainy season).
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Fig1: Relative effect of month of death by age group, Nouna HDSS 1998–2007. Infants <1 (green), children 1–4 (orange), adolescents 5–14 (black), adults 15–59 (purple), elderly 60+ (blue), grey shaded area (rainy season).

Mentions: Figure 1 presents the age-specific relative monthly effect on all-cause mortality. For infants and children, the logarithmic RRs were higher in the months of the wet season, whereas old people showed an opposite trend. The relative monthly effect for youth and adults is similar to the trend for the oldest, but the picture is less clear. For all age groups, the variation of the monthly rates was significant.Fig. 1


Seasonal and temporal trends in all-cause and malaria mortality in rural Burkina Faso, 1998-2007.

Otte im Kampe E, Müller O, Sie A, Becher H - Malar. J. (2015)

Relative effect of month of death by age group, Nouna HDSS 1998–2007. Infants <1 (green), children 1–4 (orange), adolescents 5–14 (black), adults 15–59 (purple), elderly 60+ (blue), grey shaded area (rainy season).
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4524173&req=5

Fig1: Relative effect of month of death by age group, Nouna HDSS 1998–2007. Infants <1 (green), children 1–4 (orange), adolescents 5–14 (black), adults 15–59 (purple), elderly 60+ (blue), grey shaded area (rainy season).
Mentions: Figure 1 presents the age-specific relative monthly effect on all-cause mortality. For infants and children, the logarithmic RRs were higher in the months of the wet season, whereas old people showed an opposite trend. The relative monthly effect for youth and adults is similar to the trend for the oldest, but the picture is less clear. For all age groups, the variation of the monthly rates was significant.Fig. 1

Bottom Line: Seasonal and temporal trends were modelled with parametric Poisson regression adjusted for sex, area of residence and year of death.Overall, 7,378 deaths occurred corresponding to a mortality rate of 11.9/1,000 with highest rates in infants (56.8/1,000) and children (22.0/1,000).The seasonal trend is well described parametrically with a sinusoidal function.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany. eotteimkampe@yahoo.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: High mortality levels in sub-Saharan Africa are still a major public health problem. Children are the most affected group with malaria as one of the major causes of death in this region. To plan health interventions, reliable empirical information on cause-specific mortality patterns is essential, yet such data are often not available in developing countries. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) implementing the verbal autopsy (VA) method provide such data on a longitudinal basis. Physician Coded VA is usually used to determine cause of death, but recently a computerized method, Interpreting VA (InterVA) was alternatively introduced. This study investigates the effect of season on all-cause and malaria mortality analysing cause of death data from 1998 to 2007 obtained by the Nouna HDSS in rural Burkina Faso and derived by InterVA.

Methods: Monthly mortality rates were calculated for different age groups (infants, children, adolescents, adults, elderly). Seasonal and temporal trends were modelled with parametric Poisson regression adjusted for sex, area of residence and year of death.

Results: Overall, 7,378 deaths occurred corresponding to a mortality rate of 11.9/1,000 with highest rates in infants (56.8/1,000) and children (22.0/1,000). Young children were most affected by malaria. Malaria mortality patterns in children showed significantly higher rates during the rainy season and a stagnant long-term trend. The seasonal trend is well described parametrically with a sinusoidal function. InterVA assigned about half as many deaths to malaria than physicians.

Conclusions: Malaria mortality remains highly seasonal in rural Burkina Faso. The InterVA method appears to determine reasonably well seasonal mortality patterns, which should be considered for the planning of health resources and activities.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus