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Modeled Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems at Six Major Estuaries on Florida's Gulf Coast: Implications for Adaptation Planning.

Geselbracht LL, Freeman K, Birch AP, Brenner J, Gordon DR - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision.The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates.The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Florida Chapter, Altamonte Springs, Florida, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied at six major estuaries along Florida's Gulf Coast (Pensacola Bay, St. Andrews/Choctawhatchee Bays, Apalachicola Bay, Southern Big Bend, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor) to provide quantitative and spatial information on how coastal ecosystems may change with sea level rise (SLR) and to identify how this information can be used to inform adaption planning. High resolution LiDAR-derived elevation data was utilized under three SLR scenarios: 0.7 m, 1 m and 2 m through the year 2100 and uncertainty analyses were conducted on selected input parameters at three sites. Results indicate that the extent, spatial orientation and relative composition of coastal ecosystems at the study areas may substantially change with SLR. Under the 1 m SLR scenario, total predicted impacts for all study areas indicate that coastal forest (-69,308 ha; -18%), undeveloped dry land (-28,444 ha; -2%) and tidal flat (-25,556 ha; -47%) will likely face the greatest loss in cover by the year 2100. The largest potential gains in cover were predicted for saltmarsh (+32,922 ha; +88%), transitional saltmarsh (+23,645 ha; na) and mangrove forest (+12,583 ha; +40%). The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision. The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates. The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Apalachicola Bay Area SLAMM Results.(A) Bar graph of loss/gain of coastal ecosystems under 3 sea level rise scenarios. (B) Map of SLAMM results illustrating the change in coastal ecosystem types (from/to) under a 1 m sea level rise scenario.
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pone.0132079.g005: Apalachicola Bay Area SLAMM Results.(A) Bar graph of loss/gain of coastal ecosystems under 3 sea level rise scenarios. (B) Map of SLAMM results illustrating the change in coastal ecosystem types (from/to) under a 1 m sea level rise scenario.

Mentions: As with the previous two study areas discussed, the Apalachicola Bay study area was predicted by SLAMM to lose a large amount of coastal forest under 1 m of SLR (-20,857 ha or -27%; Table 3). The loss is much larger in this study area is likely because the Apalachicola River is much larger than the rivers feeding into the estuaries of the other study areas and has a much larger lower floodplain. The majority of the coastal forest lost was predicted to transition into various marsh types (Fig 5). Other coastal ecosystems predicted by SLAMM to experience large percent losses of spatial extent included tidal swamp (-56%; -3,357 ha), ocean beach (-26%; -94 ha) and inland freshwater marsh (-20%; -4,379 ha). Undeveloped dry land was predicted by SLAMM to lose 3,084 ha (- 5%) of this ecosystem type in the study area.


Modeled Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems at Six Major Estuaries on Florida's Gulf Coast: Implications for Adaptation Planning.

Geselbracht LL, Freeman K, Birch AP, Brenner J, Gordon DR - PLoS ONE (2015)

Apalachicola Bay Area SLAMM Results.(A) Bar graph of loss/gain of coastal ecosystems under 3 sea level rise scenarios. (B) Map of SLAMM results illustrating the change in coastal ecosystem types (from/to) under a 1 m sea level rise scenario.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4514811&req=5

pone.0132079.g005: Apalachicola Bay Area SLAMM Results.(A) Bar graph of loss/gain of coastal ecosystems under 3 sea level rise scenarios. (B) Map of SLAMM results illustrating the change in coastal ecosystem types (from/to) under a 1 m sea level rise scenario.
Mentions: As with the previous two study areas discussed, the Apalachicola Bay study area was predicted by SLAMM to lose a large amount of coastal forest under 1 m of SLR (-20,857 ha or -27%; Table 3). The loss is much larger in this study area is likely because the Apalachicola River is much larger than the rivers feeding into the estuaries of the other study areas and has a much larger lower floodplain. The majority of the coastal forest lost was predicted to transition into various marsh types (Fig 5). Other coastal ecosystems predicted by SLAMM to experience large percent losses of spatial extent included tidal swamp (-56%; -3,357 ha), ocean beach (-26%; -94 ha) and inland freshwater marsh (-20%; -4,379 ha). Undeveloped dry land was predicted by SLAMM to lose 3,084 ha (- 5%) of this ecosystem type in the study area.

Bottom Line: The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision.The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates.The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Florida Chapter, Altamonte Springs, Florida, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied at six major estuaries along Florida's Gulf Coast (Pensacola Bay, St. Andrews/Choctawhatchee Bays, Apalachicola Bay, Southern Big Bend, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor) to provide quantitative and spatial information on how coastal ecosystems may change with sea level rise (SLR) and to identify how this information can be used to inform adaption planning. High resolution LiDAR-derived elevation data was utilized under three SLR scenarios: 0.7 m, 1 m and 2 m through the year 2100 and uncertainty analyses were conducted on selected input parameters at three sites. Results indicate that the extent, spatial orientation and relative composition of coastal ecosystems at the study areas may substantially change with SLR. Under the 1 m SLR scenario, total predicted impacts for all study areas indicate that coastal forest (-69,308 ha; -18%), undeveloped dry land (-28,444 ha; -2%) and tidal flat (-25,556 ha; -47%) will likely face the greatest loss in cover by the year 2100. The largest potential gains in cover were predicted for saltmarsh (+32,922 ha; +88%), transitional saltmarsh (+23,645 ha; na) and mangrove forest (+12,583 ha; +40%). The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision. The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates. The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus