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The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

Posner A, Hesse M, St Cyr OC - Space Weather (2014)

Bottom Line: The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs.Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements.Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland, USA ; Also at NASA Headquarters Washington, DC, USA.

ABSTRACT

: Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Key points: Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

(top) Solar wind speeds measured at L1 (ACE, SOHO) and in the Earth's magnetotail/magnetosheath region (Wind). It includes a comparison of the ACE/RTSW solar wind real-time feed (black) with data reconstructed after the fact from ACE/SWEPAM science data by Skoug et al. [2004] (red) during the Halloween storms of 28 October to 1 November 2003. Data recorded by SOHO's CELIAS sensor (blue) are taken from the instrument team web site. Wind/SWE data (orange) are from Farrugia et al. [2005]. The horizontal lines show the upper limit of the nominal speed ranges for Wind, ACE, and DSCOVR. The approximate linear propagation time of solar wind packets of a given speed from L1 to the magnetopause is given on the right hand side. (bottom) The geomagnetic equatorial Dst index from the Kyoto Dst Index Service for comparison.
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fig01: (top) Solar wind speeds measured at L1 (ACE, SOHO) and in the Earth's magnetotail/magnetosheath region (Wind). It includes a comparison of the ACE/RTSW solar wind real-time feed (black) with data reconstructed after the fact from ACE/SWEPAM science data by Skoug et al. [2004] (red) during the Halloween storms of 28 October to 1 November 2003. Data recorded by SOHO's CELIAS sensor (blue) are taken from the instrument team web site. Wind/SWE data (orange) are from Farrugia et al. [2005]. The horizontal lines show the upper limit of the nominal speed ranges for Wind, ACE, and DSCOVR. The approximate linear propagation time of solar wind packets of a given speed from L1 to the magnetopause is given on the right hand side. (bottom) The geomagnetic equatorial Dst index from the Kyoto Dst Index Service for comparison.

Mentions: The described effects are visualized in the black (NRT) and red (reconstructed) data of Figure 1.


The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

Posner A, Hesse M, St Cyr OC - Space Weather (2014)

(top) Solar wind speeds measured at L1 (ACE, SOHO) and in the Earth's magnetotail/magnetosheath region (Wind). It includes a comparison of the ACE/RTSW solar wind real-time feed (black) with data reconstructed after the fact from ACE/SWEPAM science data by Skoug et al. [2004] (red) during the Halloween storms of 28 October to 1 November 2003. Data recorded by SOHO's CELIAS sensor (blue) are taken from the instrument team web site. Wind/SWE data (orange) are from Farrugia et al. [2005]. The horizontal lines show the upper limit of the nominal speed ranges for Wind, ACE, and DSCOVR. The approximate linear propagation time of solar wind packets of a given speed from L1 to the magnetopause is given on the right hand side. (bottom) The geomagnetic equatorial Dst index from the Kyoto Dst Index Service for comparison.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4508931&req=5

fig01: (top) Solar wind speeds measured at L1 (ACE, SOHO) and in the Earth's magnetotail/magnetosheath region (Wind). It includes a comparison of the ACE/RTSW solar wind real-time feed (black) with data reconstructed after the fact from ACE/SWEPAM science data by Skoug et al. [2004] (red) during the Halloween storms of 28 October to 1 November 2003. Data recorded by SOHO's CELIAS sensor (blue) are taken from the instrument team web site. Wind/SWE data (orange) are from Farrugia et al. [2005]. The horizontal lines show the upper limit of the nominal speed ranges for Wind, ACE, and DSCOVR. The approximate linear propagation time of solar wind packets of a given speed from L1 to the magnetopause is given on the right hand side. (bottom) The geomagnetic equatorial Dst index from the Kyoto Dst Index Service for comparison.
Mentions: The described effects are visualized in the black (NRT) and red (reconstructed) data of Figure 1.

Bottom Line: The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs.Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements.Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland, USA ; Also at NASA Headquarters Washington, DC, USA.

ABSTRACT

: Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Key points: Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus