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Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Proposed mechanisms of TGD-associated HFRS occurrence.The occurrence of HFRS involves multiple factors including climate factors, rodent factors and social activities. Climate factors and social activities can affect hantavirus transmission directly or indirectly through changing rodent dynamics. Although the effects of dam construction on the social activities have been reported, whether the dam affects HFRS occurrence through changing local climate and/or rodent dynamics remains elusive. TGD: Three Gorges Dam. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. HV: hantavirus. GDP: gross domestic product.
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pone.0133218.g005: Proposed mechanisms of TGD-associated HFRS occurrence.The occurrence of HFRS involves multiple factors including climate factors, rodent factors and social activities. Climate factors and social activities can affect hantavirus transmission directly or indirectly through changing rodent dynamics. Although the effects of dam construction on the social activities have been reported, whether the dam affects HFRS occurrence through changing local climate and/or rodent dynamics remains elusive. TGD: Three Gorges Dam. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. HV: hantavirus. GDP: gross domestic product.

Mentions: Although the current data are not sufficient to support a direct impact of the TGD on transmission of HFRS, we may propose several scenarios (Fig 5). The construction of the TGD (1997–2012) has resulted in significant ecological changes and substantial modifications to the depth and flow pattern of the river [31–33]. In addition, about 1.24 million residents have been relocated during dam construction [29]. The subsequent changes in the Yangtze River may influence the local rodent reservoir, breeding habits, and population size. Resident relocation and rodent dynamics may increase or decrease the contact between residents and infected rodents, thereby influencing the incidence of HFRS. In our study, a positive association was obtained between rodent density and HFRS incidence in the Changshou district. However, further investigations are needed to resolve the impact that the TGD will have on the rodent dynamics and transmission of HFRS.


Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Proposed mechanisms of TGD-associated HFRS occurrence.The occurrence of HFRS involves multiple factors including climate factors, rodent factors and social activities. Climate factors and social activities can affect hantavirus transmission directly or indirectly through changing rodent dynamics. Although the effects of dam construction on the social activities have been reported, whether the dam affects HFRS occurrence through changing local climate and/or rodent dynamics remains elusive. TGD: Three Gorges Dam. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. HV: hantavirus. GDP: gross domestic product.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4507865&req=5

pone.0133218.g005: Proposed mechanisms of TGD-associated HFRS occurrence.The occurrence of HFRS involves multiple factors including climate factors, rodent factors and social activities. Climate factors and social activities can affect hantavirus transmission directly or indirectly through changing rodent dynamics. Although the effects of dam construction on the social activities have been reported, whether the dam affects HFRS occurrence through changing local climate and/or rodent dynamics remains elusive. TGD: Three Gorges Dam. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. HV: hantavirus. GDP: gross domestic product.
Mentions: Although the current data are not sufficient to support a direct impact of the TGD on transmission of HFRS, we may propose several scenarios (Fig 5). The construction of the TGD (1997–2012) has resulted in significant ecological changes and substantial modifications to the depth and flow pattern of the river [31–33]. In addition, about 1.24 million residents have been relocated during dam construction [29]. The subsequent changes in the Yangtze River may influence the local rodent reservoir, breeding habits, and population size. Resident relocation and rodent dynamics may increase or decrease the contact between residents and infected rodents, thereby influencing the incidence of HFRS. In our study, a positive association was obtained between rodent density and HFRS incidence in the Changshou district. However, further investigations are needed to resolve the impact that the TGD will have on the rodent dynamics and transmission of HFRS.

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus