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Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Rodent strain and zero-inflated model in the Changshou district from 1997 to 2007.Zero-inflated model showed that the coefficient of rodent density was significantly positive in the negative binomial regression part but not significant in the zero inflation (logistic regression) part, indicating an overall positive association between the HFRS incidence and rodent density.
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pone.0133218.g004: Rodent strain and zero-inflated model in the Changshou district from 1997 to 2007.Zero-inflated model showed that the coefficient of rodent density was significantly positive in the negative binomial regression part but not significant in the zero inflation (logistic regression) part, indicating an overall positive association between the HFRS incidence and rodent density.

Mentions: Given the limited data, this analysis was only conducted for the Changshou district from 1997 to 2007. The results showed that Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus (34.11% and 37.85% of the total rodents) were the main rodent strains; they are the natural hosts for Hantaan and Seoul virus, respectively. Other rodent strains found in this district included Mus musculus, Insectivora, and Flavipectus (Fig 4). The zero-inflated model showed that the coefficient of rodent density with lag 0 was significant in the negative binomial regression part, but not significant in the zero inflation (logistic regression) part (Fig 4), suggesting an overall positive association between the HFRS incidence and rodent density with lag 0.


Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Rodent strain and zero-inflated model in the Changshou district from 1997 to 2007.Zero-inflated model showed that the coefficient of rodent density was significantly positive in the negative binomial regression part but not significant in the zero inflation (logistic regression) part, indicating an overall positive association between the HFRS incidence and rodent density.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4507865&req=5

pone.0133218.g004: Rodent strain and zero-inflated model in the Changshou district from 1997 to 2007.Zero-inflated model showed that the coefficient of rodent density was significantly positive in the negative binomial regression part but not significant in the zero inflation (logistic regression) part, indicating an overall positive association between the HFRS incidence and rodent density.
Mentions: Given the limited data, this analysis was only conducted for the Changshou district from 1997 to 2007. The results showed that Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus (34.11% and 37.85% of the total rodents) were the main rodent strains; they are the natural hosts for Hantaan and Seoul virus, respectively. Other rodent strains found in this district included Mus musculus, Insectivora, and Flavipectus (Fig 4). The zero-inflated model showed that the coefficient of rodent density with lag 0 was significant in the negative binomial regression part, but not significant in the zero inflation (logistic regression) part (Fig 4), suggesting an overall positive association between the HFRS incidence and rodent density with lag 0.

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus