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Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Comparison of climatic factors between central and periphery regions from 1997 to 2008.(A) Difference in annual temperatures between central and periphery regions; (B) Difference in annual precipitations between central and periphery regions.
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pone.0133218.g003: Comparison of climatic factors between central and periphery regions from 1997 to 2008.(A) Difference in annual temperatures between central and periphery regions; (B) Difference in annual precipitations between central and periphery regions.

Mentions: In the central region, the annual average temperature was 17.8°C and ranged between 17.3°C and 18.6°C (Fig 3A). In the periphery region, the annual average temperature was 18.3°C and ranged between 17.6°C and 19.4°C (Fig 3A). The annual precipitation in the central region was 1132 mm and ranged from 863 to 1450 mm (Fig 3B). In the periphery region, the annual precipitation was 1117 mm and ranged from 746 mm to 1423 mm (Fig 3B).


Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Comparison of climatic factors between central and periphery regions from 1997 to 2008.(A) Difference in annual temperatures between central and periphery regions; (B) Difference in annual precipitations between central and periphery regions.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4507865&req=5

pone.0133218.g003: Comparison of climatic factors between central and periphery regions from 1997 to 2008.(A) Difference in annual temperatures between central and periphery regions; (B) Difference in annual precipitations between central and periphery regions.
Mentions: In the central region, the annual average temperature was 17.8°C and ranged between 17.3°C and 18.6°C (Fig 3A). In the periphery region, the annual average temperature was 18.3°C and ranged between 17.6°C and 19.4°C (Fig 3A). The annual precipitation in the central region was 1132 mm and ranged from 863 to 1450 mm (Fig 3B). In the periphery region, the annual precipitation was 1117 mm and ranged from 746 mm to 1423 mm (Fig 3B).

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus