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Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Temporal pattern of HFRS occurrence from 1997 to 2008.(A) Annual and monthly trends of HFRS incidence in the study area; (B) Seasonal trend of HFRS incidence in the study area. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Case numbers for each month are presented as mean ± standard error of mean.
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pone.0133218.g002: Temporal pattern of HFRS occurrence from 1997 to 2008.(A) Annual and monthly trends of HFRS incidence in the study area; (B) Seasonal trend of HFRS incidence in the study area. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Case numbers for each month are presented as mean ± standard error of mean.

Mentions: Between 1997 and 2008, a total of 399 cases of HFRS were reported in the study area, with the cumulative number of HFRS cases in each district ranging from 1 to 83. Interestingly, about 85% of the total cases and high cumulative incidences (>5/100,000) occurred in the central region, indicating a spatial trend of HFRS occurrence (Fig 1). In the study area, the annual HFRS incidence decreased from 0.55/100,000 in 1997 to 0.03/100,000 in 2008 (Fig 2A); HFRS cases occurred year-round and tended to peak in April, June and December (Fig 2B).


Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

Bai Y, Xu Z, Lu B, Sun Q, Tang W, Liu X, Yang W, Xu X, Liu Q - PLoS ONE (2015)

Temporal pattern of HFRS occurrence from 1997 to 2008.(A) Annual and monthly trends of HFRS incidence in the study area; (B) Seasonal trend of HFRS incidence in the study area. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Case numbers for each month are presented as mean ± standard error of mean.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4507865&req=5

pone.0133218.g002: Temporal pattern of HFRS occurrence from 1997 to 2008.(A) Annual and monthly trends of HFRS incidence in the study area; (B) Seasonal trend of HFRS incidence in the study area. HFRS: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Case numbers for each month are presented as mean ± standard error of mean.
Mentions: Between 1997 and 2008, a total of 399 cases of HFRS were reported in the study area, with the cumulative number of HFRS cases in each district ranging from 1 to 83. Interestingly, about 85% of the total cases and high cumulative incidences (>5/100,000) occurred in the central region, indicating a spatial trend of HFRS occurrence (Fig 1). In the study area, the annual HFRS incidence decreased from 0.55/100,000 in 1997 to 0.03/100,000 in 2008 (Fig 2A); HFRS cases occurred year-round and tended to peak in April, June and December (Fig 2B).

Bottom Line: The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing.Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS.A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus