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Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage.

Magrach A, Ghazoul J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity.Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species.The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, CHN G 73.1 Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.

ABSTRACT
Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Global distribution of optimal areas for a)-c) Arabica and d) Robusta coffee plantation in 2050 predicted by the model HADGEM2-AO and current forested surfaces, showing areas where coffee suitability might conflict with forest presence.
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pone.0133071.g002: Global distribution of optimal areas for a)-c) Arabica and d) Robusta coffee plantation in 2050 predicted by the model HADGEM2-AO and current forested surfaces, showing areas where coffee suitability might conflict with forest presence.

Mentions: These figures represent enough suitable area to meet future demands. Yet, 49% (±2%, 9.5 ± 1.2 million hectares) of the future area suitable for Arabica cultivation, and 65% (±12%, 63.33 ± 12 million hectares) of that for Robusta, are under forest cover (e.g., within the Amazon Basin, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Cameroon, Gabon, and Congo, Fig 2A–2D). This compares to 37% and 42% of current suitable area for Arabica and Robusta respectively which is under forest. Moreover, 14% (±0.1%) of future area suitable for Arabica (1.4 ± 0.21 million hectares) and 24% (± 2%) of area suitable for Robusta (8.2 ± 1.05 million hectares) are currently under the cultivation of other crops.


Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage.

Magrach A, Ghazoul J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Global distribution of optimal areas for a)-c) Arabica and d) Robusta coffee plantation in 2050 predicted by the model HADGEM2-AO and current forested surfaces, showing areas where coffee suitability might conflict with forest presence.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4503344&req=5

pone.0133071.g002: Global distribution of optimal areas for a)-c) Arabica and d) Robusta coffee plantation in 2050 predicted by the model HADGEM2-AO and current forested surfaces, showing areas where coffee suitability might conflict with forest presence.
Mentions: These figures represent enough suitable area to meet future demands. Yet, 49% (±2%, 9.5 ± 1.2 million hectares) of the future area suitable for Arabica cultivation, and 65% (±12%, 63.33 ± 12 million hectares) of that for Robusta, are under forest cover (e.g., within the Amazon Basin, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Cameroon, Gabon, and Congo, Fig 2A–2D). This compares to 37% and 42% of current suitable area for Arabica and Robusta respectively which is under forest. Moreover, 14% (±0.1%) of future area suitable for Arabica (1.4 ± 0.21 million hectares) and 24% (± 2%) of area suitable for Robusta (8.2 ± 1.05 million hectares) are currently under the cultivation of other crops.

Bottom Line: This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity.Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species.The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, CHN G 73.1 Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.

ABSTRACT
Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus