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The demographic impact on the demand for emergency medical services in the urban and rural regions of Bavaria, 2012-2032.

Veser A, Sieber F, Groß S, Prückner S - Z Gesundh Wiss (2015)

Bottom Line: The projection predicted an overall increase in emergency ambulance dispatches by 21 % in Bavaria within 20 years, solely due to demographic effects.The substantial demographic impact in combination with strong urban-rural variations should be accounted for in regional long-term planning as well as age-group specific innovation in the emergency medical services.As demography is not the only significant demand factor, the identification and quantification of other factors remains a challenge for further research.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute for Emergency Medicine and Management in Medicine - INM, Klinikum der Universität München, Schillerstr. 53, 80336 Munich, Germany.

ABSTRACT

Aim: In most regions of the world, the proportion of older people in the population has increased during the last decades. As this entails major consequences for the healthcare sector, this study isolates and quantifies the impact of an aging population on the demand for emergency medical services in different types of regions in Bavaria between 2012 and 2032.

Methods: Dispatch data of the emergency medical services were combined with population data and forecasts. Age-specific rates of emergency ambulance dispatches were calculated and used for a 20-year-projection for all 71 rural and 25 urban districts of Bavaria. Tests for differences between these two types of regions were applied.

Results: Per capita rates of emergency ambulance dispatches in urban regions tend to be higher and there is an urban-rural distinction in the rates of specific age groups. The projection predicted an overall increase in emergency ambulance dispatches by 21 % in Bavaria within 20 years, solely due to demographic effects. At the regional level, this demographic impact ranged from about -3 % to +41 %. There is a clear urban-rural distinction and the 28 regions with the strongest increase are all rural regions.

Conclusion: The substantial demographic impact in combination with strong urban-rural variations should be accounted for in regional long-term planning as well as age-group specific innovation in the emergency medical services. As demography is not the only significant demand factor, the identification and quantification of other factors remains a challenge for further research.

No MeSH data available.


Rates of emergency ambulance dispatches per 1,000 inhabitants (READ) and share of population aged 75+ in the Bavarian regions (2012)
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Related In: Results  -  Collection


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Fig2: Rates of emergency ambulance dispatches per 1,000 inhabitants (READ) and share of population aged 75+ in the Bavarian regions (2012)

Mentions: At the regional level, there is a large variation of the total READ for all ages, ranging from 40 to 120 within the 96 assessed regions in 2012 (Fig. 2). There is a clear distinction between rural and urban regions [unpaired t-test t(94) = 11.73, p < .001, READ mean difference of 29.6 (95 % CI, 24.6–34.6)]. All 62 regions with a READ below 72 are rural regions. Amongst the 21 regions with a READ above 83, only two are rural regions. Regions with a high share of population aged 75 years and older tend to also have a high READ, regardless of their settlement structure—Pearson’s r(94) = 0.516, p < .001.Fig. 2


The demographic impact on the demand for emergency medical services in the urban and rural regions of Bavaria, 2012-2032.

Veser A, Sieber F, Groß S, Prückner S - Z Gesundh Wiss (2015)

Rates of emergency ambulance dispatches per 1,000 inhabitants (READ) and share of population aged 75+ in the Bavarian regions (2012)
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4502287&req=5

Fig2: Rates of emergency ambulance dispatches per 1,000 inhabitants (READ) and share of population aged 75+ in the Bavarian regions (2012)
Mentions: At the regional level, there is a large variation of the total READ for all ages, ranging from 40 to 120 within the 96 assessed regions in 2012 (Fig. 2). There is a clear distinction between rural and urban regions [unpaired t-test t(94) = 11.73, p < .001, READ mean difference of 29.6 (95 % CI, 24.6–34.6)]. All 62 regions with a READ below 72 are rural regions. Amongst the 21 regions with a READ above 83, only two are rural regions. Regions with a high share of population aged 75 years and older tend to also have a high READ, regardless of their settlement structure—Pearson’s r(94) = 0.516, p < .001.Fig. 2

Bottom Line: The projection predicted an overall increase in emergency ambulance dispatches by 21 % in Bavaria within 20 years, solely due to demographic effects.The substantial demographic impact in combination with strong urban-rural variations should be accounted for in regional long-term planning as well as age-group specific innovation in the emergency medical services.As demography is not the only significant demand factor, the identification and quantification of other factors remains a challenge for further research.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute for Emergency Medicine and Management in Medicine - INM, Klinikum der Universität München, Schillerstr. 53, 80336 Munich, Germany.

ABSTRACT

Aim: In most regions of the world, the proportion of older people in the population has increased during the last decades. As this entails major consequences for the healthcare sector, this study isolates and quantifies the impact of an aging population on the demand for emergency medical services in different types of regions in Bavaria between 2012 and 2032.

Methods: Dispatch data of the emergency medical services were combined with population data and forecasts. Age-specific rates of emergency ambulance dispatches were calculated and used for a 20-year-projection for all 71 rural and 25 urban districts of Bavaria. Tests for differences between these two types of regions were applied.

Results: Per capita rates of emergency ambulance dispatches in urban regions tend to be higher and there is an urban-rural distinction in the rates of specific age groups. The projection predicted an overall increase in emergency ambulance dispatches by 21 % in Bavaria within 20 years, solely due to demographic effects. At the regional level, this demographic impact ranged from about -3 % to +41 %. There is a clear urban-rural distinction and the 28 regions with the strongest increase are all rural regions.

Conclusion: The substantial demographic impact in combination with strong urban-rural variations should be accounted for in regional long-term planning as well as age-group specific innovation in the emergency medical services. As demography is not the only significant demand factor, the identification and quantification of other factors remains a challenge for further research.

No MeSH data available.