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Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

Preston SH, Stokes A, Mehta NK, Cao B - Demography (2014)

Bottom Line: Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer.By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects.Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA, spreston@sas.upenn.edu.

ABSTRACT
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

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Combined effects of projected trends in smoking and obesity on age-specific death rates
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Fig7: Combined effects of projected trends in smoking and obesity on age-specific death rates

Mentions: Assuming independence between the mortality risks of obesity and smoking, we multiply the effects of changes in obesity and smoking presented in Figs. 3 and 6. Results are shown in Fig. 7. The preponderant downward slope of both sets of results when smoking and obesity are considered independently is accentuated when the effects are multiplied. The obesity effect dominates the smoking effect below age 60, where death rates are projected to be higher than baseline throughout the projection period. Above age 60, the smoking effect is clearly dominant and produces reductions in mortality.Fig. 7


Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

Preston SH, Stokes A, Mehta NK, Cao B - Demography (2014)

Combined effects of projected trends in smoking and obesity on age-specific death rates
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4495773&req=5

Fig7: Combined effects of projected trends in smoking and obesity on age-specific death rates
Mentions: Assuming independence between the mortality risks of obesity and smoking, we multiply the effects of changes in obesity and smoking presented in Figs. 3 and 6. Results are shown in Fig. 7. The preponderant downward slope of both sets of results when smoking and obesity are considered independently is accentuated when the effects are multiplied. The obesity effect dominates the smoking effect below age 60, where death rates are projected to be higher than baseline throughout the projection period. Above age 60, the smoking effect is clearly dominant and produces reductions in mortality.Fig. 7

Bottom Line: Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer.By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects.Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA, spreston@sas.upenn.edu.

ABSTRACT
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus