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Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

Preston SH, Stokes A, Mehta NK, Cao B - Demography (2014)

Bottom Line: Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer.By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects.Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA, spreston@sas.upenn.edu.

ABSTRACT
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

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Cohort coefficients predicting lung cancer mortality and cumulative cohort smoking by age 40. Sources: Data on smoking are derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Coefficients are derived from age/cohort model of lung cancer mortality
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Fig5: Cohort coefficients predicting lung cancer mortality and cumulative cohort smoking by age 40. Sources: Data on smoking are derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Coefficients are derived from age/cohort model of lung cancer mortality

Mentions: Figure 5 plots cohort effects estimated from Eq. (2) and the mean number of years of smoking before age 40 for each cohort, used to estimate Eq. (1). The two series for women obviously track each other closely, including a bump for female cohorts born 1955–1964. For men, both series are hill-shaped, although the peak of the smoking series occurs earlier than the peak cohort coefficient. Figure 5 illustrates that cohort effects in lung cancer are dominated by smoking histories.Fig. 5


Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

Preston SH, Stokes A, Mehta NK, Cao B - Demography (2014)

Cohort coefficients predicting lung cancer mortality and cumulative cohort smoking by age 40. Sources: Data on smoking are derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Coefficients are derived from age/cohort model of lung cancer mortality
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4495773&req=5

Fig5: Cohort coefficients predicting lung cancer mortality and cumulative cohort smoking by age 40. Sources: Data on smoking are derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Coefficients are derived from age/cohort model of lung cancer mortality
Mentions: Figure 5 plots cohort effects estimated from Eq. (2) and the mean number of years of smoking before age 40 for each cohort, used to estimate Eq. (1). The two series for women obviously track each other closely, including a bump for female cohorts born 1955–1964. For men, both series are hill-shaped, although the peak of the smoking series occurs earlier than the peak cohort coefficient. Figure 5 illustrates that cohort effects in lung cancer are dominated by smoking histories.Fig. 5

Bottom Line: Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer.By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects.Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA, spreston@sas.upenn.edu.

ABSTRACT
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus