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Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

Preston SH, Stokes A, Mehta NK, Cao B - Demography (2014)

Bottom Line: Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer.By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects.Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA, spreston@sas.upenn.edu.

ABSTRACT
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Trends in smoking and obesity in the United States. Sources: Cigarette consumption data per adult per year are extracted from U.S. Department of Agriculture (2007). Obesity data are based on measured body mass index in NHANES from 1960 to 2010
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Fig1: Trends in smoking and obesity in the United States. Sources: Cigarette consumption data per adult per year are extracted from U.S. Department of Agriculture (2007). Obesity data are based on measured body mass index in NHANES from 1960 to 2010

Mentions: A wide variety of personal behaviors affect an individual’s health. In the aggregate, these behaviors affect the health of populations. The two behaviors that have been singled out as especially damaging to the health of the U.S. population are smoking and the interplay of diet and physical activity that results in obesity. Estimates by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) suggest that 18 % of deaths in the United States in 2000 were attributable to smoking and 15 % resulted from obesity (Mokdad et al. 2004, 2005). The prevalence of obesity has been rising in the United States, but cigarette smoking has declined (Fig. 1).Fig. 1


Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

Preston SH, Stokes A, Mehta NK, Cao B - Demography (2014)

Trends in smoking and obesity in the United States. Sources: Cigarette consumption data per adult per year are extracted from U.S. Department of Agriculture (2007). Obesity data are based on measured body mass index in NHANES from 1960 to 2010
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4495773&req=5

Fig1: Trends in smoking and obesity in the United States. Sources: Cigarette consumption data per adult per year are extracted from U.S. Department of Agriculture (2007). Obesity data are based on measured body mass index in NHANES from 1960 to 2010
Mentions: A wide variety of personal behaviors affect an individual’s health. In the aggregate, these behaviors affect the health of populations. The two behaviors that have been singled out as especially damaging to the health of the U.S. population are smoking and the interplay of diet and physical activity that results in obesity. Estimates by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) suggest that 18 % of deaths in the United States in 2000 were attributable to smoking and 15 % resulted from obesity (Mokdad et al. 2004, 2005). The prevalence of obesity has been rising in the United States, but cigarette smoking has declined (Fig. 1).Fig. 1

Bottom Line: Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer.By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects.Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA, spreston@sas.upenn.edu.

ABSTRACT
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus