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Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis.

Białowolski P - Soc Indic Res (2014)

Bottom Line: In this paper, we investigate the link between the formal definition of confidence in tendency surveys and its measurement.The conclusion is true for the confidence indicator in the area of consumer tendency surveys and for the tendency survey in the manufacturing industry.We search for possible amendments that help either to find the sources of instability for the indicators proposed by the guidelines of the European Commission or to select a different set of indicators for the concept of confidence.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Statistics and Demography, Collegium of Economic Analyses, Warsaw School of Economics, Ul. Madalińskiego 6/8, 02-513 Warsaw, Poland.

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the link between the formal definition of confidence in tendency surveys and its measurement. We advocate for the use of reflective measures in an assessment of the confidence level in both consumer and industrial indicators. Based on the data from Poland's tendency survey research, we use a multi-group confirmatory factor analytical approach to demonstrate that the set of indicators proposed by the European Commission methodology that is currently used might be not appropriate to measure the concept of confidence consistently, both within and between periods. The conclusion is true for the confidence indicator in the area of consumer tendency surveys and for the tendency survey in the manufacturing industry. We search for possible amendments that help either to find the sources of instability for the indicators proposed by the guidelines of the European Commission or to select a different set of indicators for the concept of confidence. However, we determine that the differences between the newly proposed indicator that describe industrial confidence and the indicators based on the European Commission methodology are small in terms of correlations and predictive validity.

No MeSH data available.


Balances of answers to the questions (components) of the consumer confidence indicator. Source: Own calculations in IBM SPSS Statistics 21
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Fig1: Balances of answers to the questions (components) of the consumer confidence indicator. Source: Own calculations in IBM SPSS Statistics 21

Mentions: The analyses conducted in this article are based on the data from the Research Institute for Economic Development (RIED) from the Warsaw School of Economics. Two sets of quarterly data were used. One set comprised the consumer tendency survey (The State of the Households Survey), which has been conducted at RIED starting from the first quarter of 1996 on a quarterly basis. Initially, the survey was conducted via a questionnaire attached to a newspaper. Since 2000, it has been conducted via a post questionnaire based on a representative sample of Polish households. Due to different methodologies and possible method bias in the data, only data starting from year 2000 were used in the final analyses. Each quarter approximately 3,000 Polish households received the questionnaire. The response rate oscillated approximately 20 %. Within the analysed period (1st quarter 2000–2nd quarter 2012) the average number of responses were 636 with a maximum 1,179 in the 1st quarter 2001 and a minimum of 371 in the 3rd quarter 2006. The basic statistics for the data are presented in the form of balances in Fig. 1.Fig. 1


Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis.

Białowolski P - Soc Indic Res (2014)

Balances of answers to the questions (components) of the consumer confidence indicator. Source: Own calculations in IBM SPSS Statistics 21
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4495712&req=5

Fig1: Balances of answers to the questions (components) of the consumer confidence indicator. Source: Own calculations in IBM SPSS Statistics 21
Mentions: The analyses conducted in this article are based on the data from the Research Institute for Economic Development (RIED) from the Warsaw School of Economics. Two sets of quarterly data were used. One set comprised the consumer tendency survey (The State of the Households Survey), which has been conducted at RIED starting from the first quarter of 1996 on a quarterly basis. Initially, the survey was conducted via a questionnaire attached to a newspaper. Since 2000, it has been conducted via a post questionnaire based on a representative sample of Polish households. Due to different methodologies and possible method bias in the data, only data starting from year 2000 were used in the final analyses. Each quarter approximately 3,000 Polish households received the questionnaire. The response rate oscillated approximately 20 %. Within the analysed period (1st quarter 2000–2nd quarter 2012) the average number of responses were 636 with a maximum 1,179 in the 1st quarter 2001 and a minimum of 371 in the 3rd quarter 2006. The basic statistics for the data are presented in the form of balances in Fig. 1.Fig. 1

Bottom Line: In this paper, we investigate the link between the formal definition of confidence in tendency surveys and its measurement.The conclusion is true for the confidence indicator in the area of consumer tendency surveys and for the tendency survey in the manufacturing industry.We search for possible amendments that help either to find the sources of instability for the indicators proposed by the guidelines of the European Commission or to select a different set of indicators for the concept of confidence.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Statistics and Demography, Collegium of Economic Analyses, Warsaw School of Economics, Ul. Madalińskiego 6/8, 02-513 Warsaw, Poland.

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the link between the formal definition of confidence in tendency surveys and its measurement. We advocate for the use of reflective measures in an assessment of the confidence level in both consumer and industrial indicators. Based on the data from Poland's tendency survey research, we use a multi-group confirmatory factor analytical approach to demonstrate that the set of indicators proposed by the European Commission methodology that is currently used might be not appropriate to measure the concept of confidence consistently, both within and between periods. The conclusion is true for the confidence indicator in the area of consumer tendency surveys and for the tendency survey in the manufacturing industry. We search for possible amendments that help either to find the sources of instability for the indicators proposed by the guidelines of the European Commission or to select a different set of indicators for the concept of confidence. However, we determine that the differences between the newly proposed indicator that describe industrial confidence and the indicators based on the European Commission methodology are small in terms of correlations and predictive validity.

No MeSH data available.